Bitcoin Faces Mounting Pressure as Key Support Levels Tested

Bitcoin CRYPTO000BTC

The world's leading cryptocurrency is grappling with a deepening correction, with its technical structure painting a concerning picture of lower highs and lower lows. Despite a minor rebound from the weekly low of $86,000 on Monday, analysts suggest this relief may be fleeting. Since its early October peak, Bitcoin has shed approximately 30 percent of its value, pressured by institutional outflows, declining network metrics, and critical support levels now under threat.

A significant headwind stems from institutional investors pulling capital. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed outflows totaling $1.22 billion in the week ending January 22—the highest since November 2025. The selling pressure was particularly acute on January 21, with $708.7 million withdrawn, followed by nearly $480 million the previous day. This wave of selling was led by prominent funds including BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC.

Historical context offers a glimmer of hope: the average cost basis for ETF investors sits at $84,099, a level that has repeatedly acted as support. Furthermore, similar outflow patterns have often coincided with local price bottoms. For instance, in November 2025, Bitcoin established a low near $80,000 following comparable outflows before rallying back above $90,000.

Mining Activity Shows Signs of Strain

The network's underlying health is also showing cracks. Bitcoin's hash rate dropped by roughly ten percent over the weekend, impacted by a winter storm in the United States. The 30-day average hash rate now sits six percent below its mid-November peak. Data from VanEck's ChainCheck report indicates mining difficulty declined by two percent, while the estimated global power consumption of miners fell from 206 to 203 terawatt-hours.

A broader slowdown in network activity is evident across several key on-chain metrics:
* Daily network revenue has decreased by 15%
* The count of active addresses is down 6%
* New addresses created have fallen 4%
* Overall transfer volume has declined 11%

One marginally positive signal is a 6% reduction in the volume of coins miners are transferring to exchanges, hinting at potentially decreasing sell-side pressure from this cohort.

Critical Support Zones in the Spotlight

Market attention is firmly fixed on several crucial price floors. Bitcoin is currently trading just above its 100-week moving average at $87,145. A decisive break below this level would bring subsequent support zones into focus:
* The ETF investor cost basis at $84,099
* The 2024 average exchange withdrawal price of $82,713
* The True Market Mean Price around $80,000

A sustained drop below $80,000 could reopen the possibility of a retest of April 2025 levels, when Bitcoin fell to $76,000 during a tariff-related sell-off. Conversely, an unfilled CME price gap up to $89,265 may serve as a near-term target for any rebound.

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

The broader macroeconomic landscape adds another layer of uncertainty. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January stands at a mere three percent. The central bank's policy meeting this week is expected to provide crucial direction for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Should Bitcoin close January in negative territory, it would mark its fourth consecutive monthly loss—the longest such bearish streak since 2018.