Bitcoin Closes 2025 in the Red as Traditional Havens Shine

Bitcoin CRYPTO000BTC

Bitcoin is poised to conclude 2025 with an annual loss, a rare occurrence for the flagship cryptocurrency. As it struggles to hold key support near $87,000, a stark divergence is evident: precious metals like gold and silver are simultaneously scaling record peaks. This downturn follows Bitcoin's October all-time high of $126,000, representing a decline of approximately 30%.

A flight to traditional stores of value is driving the current market dynamic. Escalating geopolitical risks, including U.S. military strikes in Nigeria and blocked oil tankers near Venezuela, are pushing capital toward perceived safety. Ramnivas Mundada of GlobalData interprets this shift: "The 2025 rally marks the beginning of a structural transformation in the international monetary system—away from a U.S.-centric framework toward a multipolar order."

The numbers underscore the contrast. On Friday, gold advanced 1.5% to $4,573 per ounce. Silver posted a 5% gain, while palladium and platinum each surged over 10%.

Historic Options Expiry and Key Resistance Levels

Adding pressure was one of the largest Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiries in history, which settled on December 26 with a notional value of $28 billion. Crypto analyst Ardi noted that a brief rally to $89,500 was primarily fueled by short covering. "While the subsequent upward move demonstrates strength and genuine demand," Ardi stated, "a sustained break above $90,500 is needed for a true trend reversal." The critical level to watch is $94,000.

Concerning Signals from Blockchain Metrics

The latest VanEck Bitcoin ChainCheck Report reveals several bearish on-chain indicators:

• Hash Rate: Down 4%, marking the most significant decline since April 2024.
• Daily Fees: Have fallen 14% month-over-month.
• New Addresses: Are stagnating, showing a 1% decrease.

A particularly notable signal is exchange inflow. Over the past ten days, more than 17,700 BTC have moved to exchange wallets. The proportion of Bitcoin supply held on exchanges has consequently increased from 6.03% to 6.12%, which is traditionally viewed as a precursor to selling pressure. The data shows mid-term holders (1-5 years) are actively distributing their coins, while long-term holders (5+ years) remain steadfast.

Institutional Activity Presents a Mixed Picture

Institutional investor behavior is sending conflicting signals. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $188.64 million on December 23, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $157.34 million in withdrawals.

Conversely, corporate treasury buying has been aggressive. Between mid-November and mid-December, Digital Asset Treasuries increased their aggregate holdings by 42,000 BTC, a 4% expansion. This accumulation, the largest since July 2025, brings total corporate holdings to 1.09 million BTC.

Outlook for 2026

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently reads 27, firmly in "Fear" territory. Bitcoin is heading for a negative annual return after having gained 119% in 2024.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades describes the current environment as a "compression phase" that could resolve with a decisive directional move in the coming weeks. History shows that weak Bitcoin years are often followed by robust recoveries; after a 65% loss in 2022, BTC soared 156% in 2023. Whether this pattern repeats will likely become clearer in January 2026—provided the crucial support level around $85,000 holds.