Bitcoin Caught in a Clash of Forces as Strategy Walks a Tightrope Between Buying and Selling

Bitcoin fell to $78,611 as Treasury yields topped 5%, Brent crude surged above $100, and Strategy’s potential Bitcoin sales offset its ongoing purchases.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is wrestling with conflicting currents. On one side, institutional demand from Strategy continues to channel fresh capital into Bitcoin through structured equity products. On the other, a toxic blend of rising bond yields, surging oil prices, and the same company’s own plan to potentially sell some of its massive stash is sending shivers through the market.

Bitcoin briefly tumbled to $78,611 on Friday before steadying around $79,074. The sharp slide triggered a cascade of forced liquidations, with long positions worth $86 million wiped out in a single sweep. The asset now hovers just below its 200-day moving average—a level that has already rejected the price five times.

Bond Yields and Oil Prices Fuel the Selloff

The primary source of pressure comes from the US Treasury market. The yield on the 30-year bond has surged past 5%, a threshold that dims the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Markets have fully priced out any near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Instead, traders now see a more than 44% probability of a rate hike by December, according to fed funds futures. That is a dramatic shift from the start of the year, when multiple cuts were still widely expected.

Compounding the macro headwinds, geopolitical tensions are pushing energy prices higher. A US-China meeting yielded no progress, and fresh threats from Washington against Iran sent Brent crude above $100 a barrel. That reignites inflation fears across the manufacturing sector, further souring the mood for risk assets.

Strategy’s Dual Role: Buyer Today, Seller Tomorrow?

The corporate sector is sending mixed signals. The secondary article reveals that Strategy recently snapped up roughly 11,700 Bitcoin through its at-the-market (ATM) equity program. The buying spree was funded by a massive surge in trading volume for the company’s preferred stock (ticker STRC), which saw $1.53 billion change hands on Thursday—more than four times its 30-day daily average. STRC, which pays an 11.5% annual dividend in monthly cash installments, now commands a market capitalization of $8.5 billion, making it the world’s largest preferred stock by that metric.

Yet at the same time, Strategy has announced a plan to buy back up to $1.5 billion in convertible notes by around May 19, paying roughly $1.38 billion in cash. The company explicitly stated it may finance the buyback by selling some of its Bitcoin holdings. Given that Strategy currently holds 818,869 BTC with an average cost basis near $75,540, even a partial sale would inject significant supply into a fragile market.

The primary article notes that this announcement has spooked investors, while the secondary article adds that the most recent weekly purchase was a mere 535 BTC—the smallest weekly amount all year. Earlier weeks had seen purchases topping 30,000 coins. The slowdown in buying, coupled with the potential for sales, has left the market questioning Strategy’s near-term appetite.

Technical Crossroads and a New Demand Channel

Technically, all eyes are on the $76,000–$77,000 zone, which also marks the 50-day moving average. If that support fails, a deeper correction could follow. If it holds, Bitcoin may trade in a consolidation range between there and $82,000—the location of the stubborn 200-day average.

Interestingly, the secondary article highlights a structural shift in how Bitcoin demand is being generated. A research report from K33, dated May 14, points out that STRC’s dividend structure creates recurring windows where Strategy can issue shares above par and funnel the proceeds directly into Bitcoin purchases. “Bitcoin demand is no longer coming solely through spot buying or ETFs,” the report notes. “It is increasingly channeled through structured equity products that convert capital from traditional markets into BTC.”

Whether that mechanism can offset the gravity of rising real yields and a potential corporate seller remains the central question. The next Fed meeting in June could provide the answer.

The shifting landscape has already taken a toll on exchange-traded funds. The seven-day average of net flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs has turned negative, with outflows averaging $88 million per day—the steepest drain since mid-February. Alex Tsepaev of B2PRIME Group sums up the mood: “When US Treasury yields are above 4.5% and the market is pricing in future Fed rate hikes, some allocations inevitably flow toward cash and bonds.”