Berenberg Lifts Novo Nordisk Target to 325 Kroner as Oral Wegovy Surge Overshadows $25M Ransom Demand

Berenberg lifts Novo Nordisk target to DKK 325 despite a ransomware breach; oral Wegovy hits 3M+ scripts, while FDA decisions loom.

Investors in Novo Nordisk are weighing a sharp dichotomy: a record-breaking oral Wegovy launch that has already generated more than three million prescriptions against a ransomware attack that has exposed sensitive data and triggered a $25 million extortion demand. Berenberg has stepped in to tip the scales, raising its price target on the Danish pharma giant to 325 Danish kroner from 300 and reiterating a Buy rating.

The ransomware group FulcrumSec claims to have stolen 1.3 terabytes of data, including source code, employee records, clinical trial information and AI models. Novo Nordisk confirmed on June 11 that it had discovered the breach and that pseudonymised study data and doctor details had been compromised. The company insists that day-to-day operations and product deliveries remain unaffected. Analysts suspect the attackers gained entry through exposed credentials in development environments.

Berenberg analyst Kerry Holford based her upgrade on a recent meeting with Novo Nordisk’s US management, which left her confident that the company will hit the upper end of its full-year guidance. The runaway success of the oral formulation of Wegovy is a key driver. Since the pill’s launch on January 5, it has racked up over three million prescriptions in the US alone, and more than 80% of those patients were new to GLP-1 therapies. Novo Nordisk has also introduced the higher-dose Wegovy HD, with roughly 80% of existing oral Wegovy patients switching to the new strength — a move that deepens customer lock-in. By contrast, Eli Lilly’s competing oral product Foundayo has so far shown limited market traction.

Across the Atlantic, the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) granted approval on June 11 for the 25 mg semaglutide tablet, based on the OASIS-4 study, which showed a 13.6% weight loss over 64 weeks against 2.4% for placebo. CEO Mike Doustdar has signalled that a Chinese filing is imminent, a move designed to pre-empt Eli Lilly’s own oral candidate in the world’s second-largest pharma market.

Beyond the immediate commercial momentum, two major FDA decisions are expected in the second half of the year: one for CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination against obesity, and another for mim-8, a hemophilia treatment. CagriSema’s pivotal trial delivered a 23% average weight loss in obese adults, and Berenberg forecasts that its launch will return Novo Nordisk to revenue growth, projecting a 3% increase in 2027. On the partnership front, the company has struck deals worth up to $2.1 billion with Boston-based Vivtex to improve oral delivery of biologics, and up to $550 million with Replicate Bioscience for self-replicating RNA therapies. To scale manufacturing, Novo Nordisk is investing €432 million in its Athlone, Ireland facility, with completion slated for 2028.

The stock currently trades at around €37.97, representing a 41% decline over the past twelve months and sitting about 8% below its 200-day moving average of €41.23. However, it is nearly 3% above its 50-day line, and the relative strength index of 53 signals a neutral stance. For bulls, the discount to the 200-day line looks excessive given the pipeline catalysts ahead. Whether FulcrumSec makes good on its threat to release the stolen data — and how the company manages the resulting reputational risk — will be the wild card in what is otherwise a story of accelerating commercial execution and a packed regulatory calendar.