Behind Cisco’s 24% Weekly Surge: Record AI Orders, Analyst Stampede, and a $1 Billion Pivot

Cisco shares jump 24% on record AI orders and earnings beat; $1B restructuring cuts 4,000 jobs as company pivots to AI infrastructure. Analysts boost price targets.

Cisco just delivered its most explosive week in years — and it came with a restructuring tab that runs to a billion dollars. The networking giant’s shares vaulted 24% over five sessions to close Friday at €101.64, a fresh 52-week peak that pushes the year-to-date gain past 56%. Investors are betting that the company’s pivot toward artificial intelligence infrastructure has shifted its growth trajectory permanently, even as management simultaneously trims 4,000 roles from the payroll.

The catalyst was a fiscal third-quarter earnings report that smashed expectations. Revenue climbed 12% to $15.84 billion, while adjusted earnings per share of $1.06 topped analyst forecasts. Product orders surged 35% year-over-year, with the core networking business posting a 50% jump. Within that, data-center switching orders rose more than 40%. Cisco booked $1.9 billion in AI-related orders in the quarter alone, prompting the board to raise its full-year 2026 target for AI infrastructure orders to $9 billion. The overall revenue outlook now stretches from $62.8 billion to $63.0 billion.

Wall Street wasted no time recalibrating. HSBC upgraded Cisco from hold to buy, lifting its price target from $77 to $137. Analyst Stephen Bersey argued that the company’s AI role is becoming structural and that AI revenue is hitting the bottom line harder than anticipated. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $120 from $91 and kept an overweight rating, noting that the demand surge is broad-based across hyperscaler customers. BNP Paribas bumped its target to $132 from $87, citing Cisco’s proprietary Silicon One silicon, Acacia optics, AI data-centers, the campus refresh cycle, and its partnership with Nvidia. At the high end, Rosenblatt now sees $150. KeyBanc, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have targets in the $114 to $125 range. Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it buy or strong buy — though the average target of $119.54 sits only a few percentage points above the latest U.S. close.

The rosy view comes with a heavy cost. Cisco is eliminating roughly 5% of its global workforce — about 4,000 jobs — as part of what CEO Chuck Robbins calls a “network supercycle” reallocation, not a cost-cutting exercise. The restructuring will incur pre-tax charges of up to $1 billion, with approximately $450 million hitting in the current fiscal fourth quarter. Capital and personnel are being shifted into high-growth areas including AI, optics, and cybersecurity.

Institutional investors are voting with their feet. Commerzbank FI expanded its Cisco position by nearly 50% in the prior quarter, and other asset managers have piled in, pushing institutional ownership above 73%. The quarterly dividend, maintained at $0.42 per share, adds a floor for the stock at current levels.

Yet not everyone is sold on the new narrative. Wolfe Research warns that some of the order acceleration may reflect pulled-forward demand driven by component shortages and price increases. At an expected price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 27x on projected earnings of $4.70 per share — up from a prior 20-21x range — Cisco now carries a premium that rivals pure-play networking peers. Ciena trades at 68x, Nokia at 32x, which bolsters the re-rating thesis but leaves the stock exposed if hyperscaler spending slows. The coming week will test whether Cisco can sustain its AI order momentum and absorb the restructuring charges without derailing the rally.