Bayer Shares Cling to Technical Lifeline as Promising Kidney Drug Data Collides with Legal Overhang

Bayer shares cling to 200-day moving average ahead of critical Supreme Court ruling on glyphosate, while successful Kerendia trial results offer a potential catalyst for growth.

The German pharmaceutical and crop science giant is caught in a familiar tug-of-war. On one side, its pharma division has just unveiled encouraging clinical results for a key kidney disease drug. On the other, the company’s shares are barely holding above a closely watched technical threshold as a Supreme Court ruling on the glyphosate litigation looms at the end of July.

Bayer’s stock closed at EUR 35.88 on Friday, a mere 0.22% above the 200-day moving average of EUR 35.80. That hairline proximity makes the level a critical support zone. The cross above the line came on June 3, which some chartists view as a buy signal, but the gap is far from comfortable. The 50-day moving average, now at EUR 38.39, sits more than 6% higher, while the relative strength index at 42.2 suggests neither oversold nor strong momentum. With annualised 30-day volatility running at 36.86%, big swings in either direction remain a real possibility.

The immediate source of the pressure is the legal front. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a landmark ruling in the case known as “Durnell” by the end of July, a verdict that will heavily influence the scope of remaining glyphosate claims against Bayer. On June 4, the opt-out deadline expired for a $7.25 billion class-action settlement. How many claimants walked away from that deal will be the next crucial data point; a higher opt-out rate would keep the litigation overhang heavy and could weigh further on the share price.

Amid this judicial fog, Bayer’s pharma unit delivered a ray of hope at the ERA Congress in Glasgow on Friday. Full results from the Phase III FIND-CKD study on the drug Kerendia were presented, showing a significant slowdown in disease progression and a reduced risk of combined cardiovascular events in patients with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease compared to placebo. Non-diabetic kidney disease accounts for the vast majority of the estimated 850 million people affected worldwide, opening a substantial market opportunity. The company now plans to file the data with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to expand Kerendia’s label.

The irony is that Bayer’s underlying business continues to perform better than the stock price suggests. In the first quarter of 2026, earnings per share beat the analyst consensus by nearly 19% and rose 13% year-on-year. Revenue climbed to EUR 13.41 billion, a 4% increase from the prior year period. Management has set a target to reduce net debt from its current EUR 32.5 billion to below EUR 29 billion by 2027. Analysts see average price targets in the EUR 48 to EUR 51 range – implying more than 30% upside from current levels – and UBS reaffirmed a “Buy” rating with a EUR 52 target on June 5.

For now, all that fundamental progress is hostage to the courtroom calendar. The July ruling in the Durnell case is the single biggest catalyst. A favourable outcome could break the stock free from its technical straitjacket; an unfavourable one would likely sink it back below the 200-day line and potentially test the multi-month low touched during the June sell-off. Until then, the EUR 35.80 handle remains Bayer’s most watched number.