Bayer’s Two-Front War: A Chinese Drug Approval vs. a $7.25 Billion Legal Cloud

Bayer shares gain 5% on China approval for stroke drug Asundexian, but legal battles over Roundup and FDA scrutiny cap upside, with stock 22% below February peak.

The last trading day of April saw Bayer shares surge 5.0% to €37.99, but the rally masks a deeper tug-of-war between pharmaceutical promise and legal peril. The stock now sits at roughly €38 — some 22% below its February peak of €49.17 — as investors weigh a landmark drug approval in China against mounting courtroom pressure in the United States.

A Stroke Drug Breaks Into China

The most significant catalyst came from Beijing, where the National Medical Products Administration accepted Bayer’s marketing application for Asundexian. The experimental therapy targets ischemic stroke prevention in high-risk patients, marking a concrete step toward establishing the company’s cardiovascular pipeline in one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical markets.

Bayer plans to reinforce this narrative at the European Stroke Organisation Conference in Maastricht from May 6 to 8, where it will present 13 abstracts from its stroke portfolio. Among them: fresh data from the Phase III OCEANIC-STROKE trial for Asundexian, which could either validate or undermine the drug’s commercial potential.

The Glyphosate Albatross

Yet for every step forward, Bayer appears to take one back in the legal arena. The proposed class-action settlement of up to $7.25 billion — which a US judge has provisionally approved — continues to generate controversy. A federal judge recently described the deal as a “dirty deal,” while the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a related case on April 27, with a ruling expected this summer.

The legal headaches intensified after internal emails surfaced suggesting Bayer had promised the EPA administrator a “small token of appreciation” for removing cancer warnings from Roundup labels. That revelation could further erode the company’s legal standing and complicate its efforts to draw a line under the glyphosate saga.

Bayer has earmarked roughly €5 billion for litigation resolution in 2026, but the Supreme Court’s eventual decision could blow that figure wide open.

FDA Scrutiny and a Recall

The regulatory front offered no respite either. On April 30, the FDA flagged promotional materials for prostate cancer drug Nubeqa, citing distracting visuals and missing risk information. The same day, Bayer recalled certain travel-size versions of its Afrin Original nasal spray in the US due to missing child-resistant packaging and incomplete labeling.

Both incidents are operationally manageable, but they underscore the breadth of oversight the company must maintain across its portfolio.

Analyst Optimism Meets Operational Reality

Despite the headwinds, 19 analysts rate Bayer an average “Outperform,” with a consensus price target of €46.53 — implying roughly 22% upside from current levels. The company has reaffirmed its 2026 guidance of €45-47 billion in revenue and adjusted EBIT of €9.6-10.1 billion, even as US pharmaceutical tariffs threaten margins. Bayer expects to partially offset those costs through existing EU-US trade agreements.

The stock’s recent bounce from €36.79 — where it had languished as one of the DAX’s weakest performers — reflects a combination of legal progress and technical relief. But the real test comes on May 12, when Bayer reports first-quarter earnings. Those numbers will reveal whether the operating business can sustain momentum while the legal and regulatory machinery grinds on.

A Divided Picture

For now, Bayer’s share price tells the story of a company caught between two narratives. On one side, a promising stroke drug entering China and a pipeline that could eventually offset patent losses. On the other, a legal quagmire that has already consumed billions and shows no signs of resolution.

The market’s verdict on May 12 will be the next major inflection point. Until then, the stock remains a bet on whether Bayer’s pharmaceutical future can outrun its legal past.