Bayer’s Twin Tracks: A Stroke Drug Breakthrough Meets the Supreme Court’s Roundup Verdict

Bayer faces dual pressures from US Supreme Court Roundup ruling and debt strain, but Asundexian and Nubeqa gains offer a potential turnaround narrative.

Bayer is fighting on two fronts this spring — one in the courtroom, the other in the lab — and investors are watching both with growing unease. The German pharmaceutical and agriculture group saw its shares slide 9% over the past week, closing Tuesday at €36.62, as the US Supreme Court weighed whether federal law should override state-level warning labels on its glyphosate-based herbicides. The oral arguments in the “Durnell” case left the market skeptical, even as management expressed satisfaction with the justices’ thorough examination.

A ruling is not expected until late June, according to JPMorgan analysts, and its implications are enormous. The decision could effectively wipe out roughly 80% of the roughly 40,000 pending Roundup lawsuits in one stroke, if the court rules that federal pesticide labeling requirements preempt state tort claims. UBS analyst Matthew Weston, who maintains a buy rating and a €52 price target, is betting the company will ultimately prevail.

Yet the legal overhang is only half the story. On Wednesday, Bayer paid out a dividend of just €0.11 per share — the legal minimum — a stark reminder of the financial strain. The company expects negative free cash flow of up to €2.5 billion this year, with net financial debt swelling to around €33 billion. A deadline for claimants to join an existing multibillion-dollar settlement also expires on June 4.

But buried beneath the legal headlines, Bayer’s pharmaceuticals division is quietly delivering results that could reshape the narrative. In April, the New England Journal of Medicine published full Phase III data for Asundexian, a stroke prevention drug that reduced ischemic strokes by 26% compared with a placebo. Crucially, the trial of more than 12,000 patients showed no elevated bleeding risk, making Asundexian the first Factor XIa inhibitor to successfully complete a Phase III study. The US Food and Drug Administration has already granted it Fast Track status, a significant boost for the drug’s approval prospects.

Meanwhile, already-approved drugs are gaining momentum. Prostate cancer treatment Nubeqa saw sales surge 57% last year to €2.4 billion, while kidney drug Kerendia generated €829 million in revenue. Bayer’s long-term target for Kerendia is €3 billion annually, and an expansion into non-diabetic chronic kidney disease is on the horizon after a separate study met its primary endpoint.

These pipeline successes come at a critical juncture. The patent cliff for blockbusters Xarelto and Eylea will bottom out by 2026, and the pharma division expects a return to mid-single-digit growth from 2027 onward. But for now, the market is focused on the here and now. On May 12, Bayer will report first-quarter results, offering the first concrete evidence of how far CEO Bill Anderson has progressed with debt reduction and restructuring. The revenue numbers for Nubeqa and Kerendia will be closely watched as early indicators of whether the pharma turnaround is on track.

Over the past 12 months, Bayer shares have still gained roughly 55%, a reminder that the long-term trend line points upward — even if the short-term path is littered with legal landmines and cash constraints.