Bayer’s Twin Tests: Kerendia Data and Legal Storms Converge

Bayer unveils Phase III Kerendia data for non-diabetic CKD at ERA Congress, faces new antitrust suit over GM corn seeds, and awaits Supreme Court decision on glyphosate liability.

The coming days present Bayer with a rare confluence of events that cut across both its pharmaceutical promise and its legal vulnerabilities. On Friday, the group will unveil full Phase III data for Kerendia at the ERA Congress in Glasgow, while US courts are simultaneously weighing antitrust accusations and a Supreme Court decision that could reshape its glyphosate liability. For investors, the week crystallises the dual narrative that defines Bayer today — pipeline progress versus persistent legal drag.

Glaswegian Stage for a Pipeline Bet

The international nephrology gathering, running from 3 to 6 June, will host three late-breaking Bayer presentations. The centrepiece is the FIND-CKD study, which tested Kerendia on top of standard therapy in adults with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease. That marks a potential expansion beyond the drug’s current indications — CKD with Type 2 diabetes and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, both already approved in the US.

Bayer will also release a subgroup analysis focusing on glomerulonephritis patients and initial findings from a pooled INFINITY analysis across various CKD populations. The data remain under wraps until Friday, but their significance is hard to overstate. An estimated 850 million people worldwide suffer from chronic kidney disease, and more than half are thought to be non-diabetic. Winning that population would open a multibillion-dollar addressable market for Kerendia, which is already the group’s fastest-growing pharma asset.

Antitrust Ambush in Corn Country

That bright pipeline story, however, is competing for attention with a fresh legal front in the US. A new antitrust lawsuit, filed in federal court by seed company Latham, accuses Bayer CropScience of monopolising the market for genetically modified corn seed. At issue is the NK603 trait, which confers resistance to glyphosate. Latham alleges that Bayer continued to collect licence fees even after the patent expired in 2022 and actively prevented independent firms from accessing the genetic material. The complaint seeks treble damages under the Sherman and Clayton Acts.

Bayer has rejected the claims and vowed to defend itself. The lawsuit lands just weeks after Bayer reached a settlement with the US Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division over its loyalty programme for independent seed dealers. Under that May agreement, Bayer scrapped the requirement that firms meet revenue targets to qualify for discounts in its “Premier Performance Program” — a scheme that bundled corn and soybean seeds. The company committed not to reintroduce the practice for seven years. Yet the DOJ stressed that its broader investigation into the agricultural seed market remains active, meaning the Latham case adds another layer of uncertainty.

Supreme Court Watch

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule this month in Durnell, a case that could determine whether federal law preempts state-level failure-to-warn claims against glyphosate — the herbicide at the heart of tens of thousands of Roundup lawsuits. A verdict in Bayer’s favour would strip many of those suits of their legal foundation, potentially removing a major overhang. A loss, by contrast, would keep the litigation machine grinding on.

Stock Slide Deepens

The market has already registered its discomfort. Bayer shares closed at €33.96 on the latest trading day, hovering roughly 5% below their 200-day moving average and recording a weekly loss of nearly 11%. The sell-off reflects not only legal headwinds but also the operational pressure evident in the first quarter: group revenue slipped to €13.41 billion, down 2.5% year on year. The pharma division posted €4.249 billion in sales, marginally below the prior-year period, even as Kerendia surged 84.2% on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis and Nubeqa climbed 57.1%. Those gains are being offset by the patent cliff on older drugs — Xarelto tumbled 40.4% and Eylea fell 20.5% as generics eroded their market positions.

Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of €44.5 billion to €46.5 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings per share of €4.10 to €4.60. The Kerendia data, while not changing that outlook immediately, are widely seen as a crucial piece of the medium-term growth picture.

Between Glasgow, Washington and the antitrust courtroom, Bayer’s next few days will offer the most detailed read yet on whether its pipeline can compensate for the legal and competitive pressures accumulating elsewhere.