Bayer’s Stock Caught Between a $2.45 Billion Biotech Bet and a Gathering Legal Storm

Bayer awaits a July Supreme Court decision on glyphosate liability, faces a US trade investigation into German drug pricing, completes a $300M eye drug deal, and sees shares slip below a key moving average.

Bayer has rarely faced a more crowded calendar. Over the past two weeks alone, the German drugmaker closed a major acquisition in ophthalmology, saw Washington launch a fresh trade investigation into its home market, and watched its shares slip back below a key technical level. All of this comes as investors anxiously await a Supreme Court ruling that could reshape the company’s entire glyphosate liability.

The most immediate milestone is the high court’s decision in Monsanto v. Durnell, expected before the end of July. At issue is whether federal pesticide law preempts state-law damages claims for glyphosate — a question that touches roughly 80% of the roughly 30,000 outstanding lawsuits Bayer inherited from its Monsanto purchase. Earlier this year, the company raised its litigation provisions to €11.8 billion, with €9.6 billion earmarked specifically for glyphosate. A ruling that blocks state claims would be a huge relief; one that allows them to proceed could force Bayer into even higher payouts.

Amid that legal overhang, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office opened a Section 301 investigation on June 18 targeting Germany’s drug pricing policies. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer argues that Berlin’s price controls force American patients to shoulder a disproportionate share of global research costs. If the probe leads to retaliatory tariffs, Bayer — Germany’s largest pharmaceutical exporter to the U.S. — would face new duties on its drug shipments. Washington is collecting comments until August 10, 2026.

Meanwhile, Bayer has been pushing forward on the operational front. On June 17 it completed the acquisition of Perfuse Therapeutics, an early-stage biotech focused on retinal diseases. The upfront payment is $300 million, and total consideration could reach $2.45 billion if development milestones are met. The lead asset, PER-001, is an intravitreal implant currently in Phase II trials for glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy. The deal bolsters Bayer’s ophthalmology pipeline and comes as the company also showcased agricultural innovations at Argentina’s Expoagro 2026, including the low-stature corn system “Preceon” and the “PRO Carbono” digital platform linking about 3,000 producers.

On another legal front, Bayer is waging a separate battle with Johnson & Johnson over prostate cancer drug Erleada (apalutamide). Bayer sued J&J in February, accusing it of misleading advertising by claiming Erleada reduces the risk of death by 51% compared with Bayer’s Nubeqa — a figure Bayer says is based on a flawed retrospective analysis rather than controlled clinical trials. A federal judge in April denied Bayer’s request for a preliminary injunction, so the case continues.

The stock itself has been volatile. Bayer shares ended last Friday at €37.81, up 4.36% for the week and perched just above the 50-day moving average of €37.74. But on Monday, the stock shed 1.59% to close at €37.21, once again dipping below that technical support. Over the past twelve months the shares have gained 43%, yet they still trade roughly 24% below the 52-week high of nearly €50.

The next few weeks will be decisive. The Supreme Court’s glyphosate ruling is due by late July, and a final fairness hearing for the legacy glyphosate settlement is scheduled for July 9. On August 4, Bayer will report second-quarter earnings — the first set under new CFO Judith Hartmann, who took over from Wolfgang Nickl on June 1. Those results will show whether the business can sustain its recovery while the legal and regulatory storms swirl.