Bayer’s Chinese Gambit: A Stroke Drug Opens a New Front as the Supreme Court Looms

Bayer shares climb as China accepts Asundexian filing for stroke prevention, but legal overhang from Roundup Supreme Court case caps gains.

Bayer’s share price staged a modest recovery on Thursday, climbing 2.7 percent to €37.44, as the market digested a critical regulatory milestone for its most promising pipeline candidate. The catalyst came from Beijing, where China’s National Medical Products Administration accepted the filing for Asundexian, a Factor XIa inhibitor designed to prevent recurrent strokes in patients who have already suffered an ischemic attack or transient ischemic episode.

The move opens the door to one of the world’s largest stroke markets. In China, strokes are the leading cause of death and disability, with the number of ischemic stroke patients swelling to roughly 20.8 million between 2010 and 2021. Morgan Stanley estimates that Asundexian could eventually generate peak global sales of up to €4 billion, a figure that underscores why the Chinese approval process is far more than a sideshow for the beleaguered German conglomerate.

The drug’s pivotal Phase III trial, OCEANIC-STROKE, demonstrated a 26 percent reduction in ischemic strokes compared to placebo, without an increase in major bleeding events — a safety profile that analysts say could give it an edge over existing anticoagulants. That data forms the backbone of global regulatory submissions, and the NMPA’s acceptance marks the first concrete step toward commercialization outside of Western markets.

Yet for all the pipeline optimism, the stock remains under pressure. At €37.44, Bayer trades roughly 6 percent below its 50-day moving average and nearly 24 percent below the 52-week high hit in February. The discount reflects a market that has not fully priced in the drug’s potential — or, more likely, one that remains deeply skeptical about the legal overhang that continues to shadow the company.

That overhang came into sharp focus this week when the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Durnell v. Monsanto, a case that could determine whether federal law preempts state-level labeling requirements for Roundup, Bayer’s glyphosate-based herbicide. Observers described a divided bench, with no clear signal on how the justices will rule. The stakes could hardly be higher: a decision in Bayer’s favor would effectively neuter more than 100,000 pending lawsuits, while an adverse ruling could expose the company to billions in additional damages. A ruling is expected by the end of the court’s term in June.

UBS analyst Matthew Weston puts the probability of a favorable Supreme Court outcome at roughly 70 percent, a figure he describes as “slightly reduced but still majority positive.” His price target stands at €52 with a Buy rating, while JPMorgan and Barclays are more cautious at €50 and €48, respectively. The gap between those targets and the current share price suggests that even the bulls see a wide range of possible outcomes.

The legal uncertainty is compounded by the company’s balance sheet. Bayer has set aside roughly €11.8 billion in provisions for litigation, while net debt sits at nearly €30 billion. The recent payment of a minimum dividend of €0.11 per share — approved at the annual general meeting for the 2025 fiscal year — did little to ease concerns about cash flow. Chief Executive Bill Anderson’s restructuring plan, aimed at streamlining operations and reducing leverage, has yet to deliver measurable results.

On the commercial front, the picture is more encouraging. Bayer’s newer pharmaceutical products are gaining traction, with the cancer drug Nubeqa and the kidney treatment Kerendia posting combined sales growth of roughly 68 percent in the last fiscal year. The heart drug Beyonttra has exceeded internal expectations since its launch, and the hormone-free menopause treatment Lynkuet is poised for a European rollout after its US debut.

The next major test comes on May 12, when Bayer reports first-quarter results. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company surprised to the upside with revenue of €11.44 billion and earnings per share of €0.62. Analysts will be watching closely for signs of improved profitability in the Crop Science division, as well as any update on the pace of debt reduction.

For now, Bayer remains caught between two narratives: one of a pharmaceutical pipeline that is finally delivering, and another of a legal and financial legacy that refuses to fade. Asundexian’s progress in China offers a tangible reason for optimism, but the Supreme Court’s looming verdict — and the structural debt burden — will determine whether that optimism translates into a lasting recovery.