Bayer Faces a Double Squeeze: Glyphosate Venue Shift and No Spin-Off Pledge Weigh on Shares

Bayer shares fall as glyphosate settlement opt-out ends, CEO rules out Monsanto spin-off, and a venue change adds legal uncertainty—despite strong Q1 earnings.

Bayer's stock has been caught between two powerful forces this week. On the one hand, the clock is ticking on the company’s $7.25 billion glyphosate settlement opt-out period, which expires today, June 4. On the other, chief executive Bill Anderson has unequivocally ruled out the spin-off of the Monsanto agricultural unit that many activists had been banking on. The shares, which closed Wednesday at €34.50 after briefly touching €34.59, have shed roughly nine percent since the start of the year and are now trading well below their 50-day moving average.

In a development that has added fresh legal uncertainty, a panel of US federal judges has referred the proposed class-action settlement from its original venue in Missouri to a federal court in San Francisco. Bayer swiftly confirmed the transfer and said it would object, dismissing the move as a procedural routine. But the new location puts the case on the desk of US District Judge Vince Chhabria, who previously torpedoed an earlier attempt by Bayer to lock in a settlement for future claims. Bank of America analysts have flagged this as a concrete risk for investors, even though Barclays maintains that the fundamental mechanics of the deal remain intact and do not expand Bayer’s liability.

Anderson’s decision to keep the conglomerate intact has deepened the malaise. Speaking recently, he made clear that structural changes would only be considered after the glyphosate litigation is resolved. That blunt message has doused hopes of a near-term value unlock through a Monsanto spin-off, a possibility that activist investor Jeffrey Ubben and others had been pushing for. mwb Research, which rates the stock a buy, argues that the legal overhang is already largely priced into the current share price, but the lack of a clear catalyst for a re-rating continues to frustrate the market.

Operationally, however, the picture is more encouraging. Bayer posted first-quarter 2026 revenue of €13.41 billion and earnings per share of €2.81, both beating analyst expectations. The pharmaceuticals division is leading the momentum, with cancer drug Nubeqa and kidney treatment Kerendia posting currency-adjusted sales growth of 57 percent and 84 percent, respectively. Together the two drugs contributed roughly €1 billion to quarterly turnover. Jefferies recently lifted its price target to €40, while a sum-of-the-parts analysis from the same shop suggests a theoretical value of €45 per share. Under a worst-case legal scenario, however, that analyst warns the stock could slide back toward the €30 mark.

The technical picture offers some hope but remains fragile. The relative strength index stands at 33.2, just shy of oversold territory, hinting that selling pressure may be exhausting. The shares are about three percent below their 200-day moving average of €35.73 — regaining that level could spark a technical bounce. But the annualised volatility of nearly 37 percent underscores how on edge the market is. With a 52-week low of €25.09 still more than a third below current levels, the downside is not out of reach as long as the legal cloud persists.

Attention is now turning to two looming milestones. A US Supreme Court ruling on the glyphosate litigation is expected by the end of June; analysts estimate that a favourable decision could render around 80 percent of pending cases moot. Then, on July 9, a fairness hearing for the current settlement is scheduled — provided the venue dispute is resolved by then. The average analyst price target of around €49.47 implies more than 40 percent upside from Wednesday’s close, but bridging that gap will require the legal fog to lift and the management’s ‘one Bayer’ strategy to prove it can deliver on both remediation and growth.