Bayer at a Crossroads: A July 9 Settlement Date and Promising Kidney Drug Data Collide

Bayer shares hover at €35.95, just above key support of €35.80, amid glyphosate lawsuit uncertainty. Q1 revenue up 4%, Kerendia Phase III success, and €2B cost-cutting program underway.

Bayer’s stock ended the trading week at €35.95, a marginal daily gain of 1.58% but a weekly loss of 1.45%. More tellingly, the share price is hovering just a few cents above its 200-day moving average of €35.80 — a level that proved equally critical in the prior session, when it closed at €35.88, a mere 0.22% above the same trendline. The RSI of 42.6 points to neither overbought nor oversold territory, but the stock’s year-to-date decline stands at 5.46% (some calculations put it at 5.64%), underscoring the persistent pressure from the US legal quagmire.

That legal cloud has only darkened in recent weeks. A procedural transfer in the glyphosate class-action complex early June triggered fresh uncertainty, and the market is now counting down to two pivotal dates. The US Supreme Court is expected to rule by the end of June on the “Durnell” case — a decision that could fundamentally reshape the liability landscape. Then, on July 9, a final hearing is scheduled for the approval of a $7.25 billion class-action settlement. The opt-out period for that settlement closed on June 4, and the number of claimants who chose to stand aside will become clear in the coming weeks. CEO Bill Anderson has made containing legal risks by the end of 2026 his top priority.

But while the courtroom drama dominates headlines, Bayer’s underlying business is showing tangible momentum. The first quarter of 2026 delivered group revenue growth of over 4% and a 9% increase in EBITDA before special items. Crop Science, the agricultural division, is driving much of that dynamism, while pharmaceutical products such as Nubeqa and Kerendia continue to gain traction. Indeed, the pharma pipeline produced a notable highlight last week: on the ERA congress in Glasgow, Bayer presented full Phase III results from the FIND-CKD trial for Kerendia. In patients with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease — a condition affecting the vast majority of the estimated 850 million people worldwide with kidney impairment — the drug significantly slowed disease progression and reduced the risk of combined cardiovascular events compared to placebo. The company now plans to submit the data to the US Food and Drug Administration to expand the drug’s label, opening up a substantial new market.

Alongside these operational gains, Bayer is pressing ahead with a sweeping cost-cutting programme. By the end of 2026, the group aims to save €2 billion annually in organisational expenses, achieved largely through management job reductions. Contrary to earlier speculation, the company confirmed in early June that a spin-off of Monsanto is not on the table.

All that fundamental progress, however, remains eclipsed by the legal overhang. The short-term moving averages have drifted above the current share price, forming a technical ceiling that blocks any quick recovery. For now, the 200-day line at €35.80 serves as the critical support. A sustained break below that level would open the door to the multi-month low set during June’s sharp sell-off.

Bayer’s story is thus one of two halves — a cautiously improving operating business and a legal burden that continues to cap the share price. The next few weeks will bring not only the Supreme Court ruling and the settlement hearing but also second-quarter results and an investor event focused on the agribusiness division in August. For shareholders, the path ahead hinges on whether the courts can finally provide the clarity that the balance sheet alone cannot.