BAT’s Top Brass Stake Their Personal Cash on Accelerated Smokeless Growth

British American Tobacco CEO leads insider buying spree ahead of raised growth forecast for vaping products. Analysts mixed; stock near 50-day moving average.

A wave of insider buying at British American Tobacco has sent a loud signal to the market, with the chief executive leading a charge that coincides with an upgraded outlook for the company’s next-generation products. Tadeu Marroco snapped up 5,000 shares on 5 June at £43.06 apiece, an outlay of roughly £215,300. His move capped a broader round of purchases two days earlier, when six other senior managers — James Barrett, Luciano Comin, Javed Iqbal, Paul McCrory, James Murphy and Johan Vandermeulen — acquired stock through the group’s employee share plan at nearly £44 each.

The buying spree came as BAT raised its growth forecast for the so-called New Categories segment, which covers vaping and oral nicotine products. In a trading update on 5 June, the group said it now expects revenue from this division to expand in the “mid-teens” percentage range for both the first half and the full year 2026, up from its previous guidance of “low double-digit” growth. The pace of decline in traditional cigarette volumes, meanwhile, has accelerated: BAT now projects a global fall of 2.5%, compared with an earlier estimate of 2%. Yet management held firm on its headline targets, reiterating organic revenue growth of 3% to 5% and a 4% to 6% increase in adjusted operating profit for the year.

Analysts reacted cautiously to the mixed picture. Bank of America and Jefferies both reaffirmed their buy recommendations after the update, while RBC maintained its sell rating. Morningstar recently lifted its stance to hold. The stock closed on Friday at €51.58, a 2.59% gain on the day, though the week still ended with a roughly 2% decline. At that level, the shares trade about 10% below the 52-week high of €57.50 touched in mid-May. Over the first six months of the year, BAT’s shares have added around 7%, while the 12-month return stands at nearly 25%.

Technically, the stock sits just above its 50-day moving average, and the relative strength index at 44 (or 45 according to some measures) points to neither overbought nor oversold conditions — neutral territory for chart watchers. The company’s ongoing share buyback programme runs until the end of June, providing an additional floor under the price.

Separately, BAT acknowledged a setback in the heated tobacco arena, where it has lost ground, particularly in the entry-level segment. To reverse that trend, the group is banking on a new product called Hyper Pro Plus. The broader shift to smokeless categories remains the central pillar of the strategy, and the formal half-year results, due later in the year, will be the next major test of whether the upgraded growth trajectory is being delivered on the bottom line as well as in the top-line projections.