BASF’s Super Thursday: Price Hikes, Earnings, and a Spin-Off Vote All Collide

BASF faces a pivotal day on April 30 with Q1 earnings, a 25% price hike, and a shareholder vote on spinning off its Agricultural Solutions unit for a 2027 IPO.

The German chemicals giant is cramming a year’s worth of corporate drama into a single day. On Thursday, April 30, BASF will release its first-quarter results, hold its annual general meeting, and ask shareholders to green-light a structural overhaul that could reshape the company for years to come — all before lunchtime.

A Pre-Emptive Price Blitz

Just days before the numbers land, BASF fired a warning shot across the bow of its customers. The group is raising prices across its entire global additives portfolio by as much as 25 percent, targeting antioxidants and process and light stabilisers used in plastics processing. The move is a direct response to margin compression that has plagued the chemicals sector for months, as rising costs along the value chain eat into profitability. By pushing through these increases, BASF hopes to defend its earnings in the specialty chemicals business.

The market has taken note. BASF shares currently trade at €54.55, just shy of their 52-week high of €54.70, and have rallied roughly 22 percent since the start of the year. Yet the technical picture is less rosy: the relative strength index stands at 22.6, signalling an oversold condition despite the strong run.

What the Numbers Are Expected to Show

At 7:00 a.m. CET on Thursday, the curtain rises on the first-quarter 2026 figures. Analysts are looking for earnings per share of €1.08, a solid jump from the €0.91 recorded in the same period last year, based on the consensus of eight analysts. Revenue, however, tells a different story. Five analysts forecast average sales of €15.82 billion — roughly 9 percent lower than a year ago. The culprit is the weak dollar environment, which hits BASF particularly hard given the significant portion of its business denominated in US currency.

For the full year, management is guiding for EBITDA before special items in a range of €6.2 billion to €7.0 billion. The midpoint of €6.6 billion sits below initial consensus estimates of around €7.0 billion, underscoring the headwinds the company faces.

Cost-Cutting Outperforms

Where BASF is beating expectations, however, is on the cost front. By the end of 2025, the group had already locked in annual savings of roughly €1.7 billion — €100 million ahead of its original target. The goal is to reach €2.3 billion in annual efficiencies by the end of 2026. That cost discipline is providing a buffer against the currency and pricing pressures weighing on the top line.

The Spin-Off Vote That Could Reshape BASF

The main event on the AGM agenda, which kicks off at the Congress Center Rosengarten in Mannheim three hours after the earnings release, is a vote on the future of the Agricultural Solutions division. Shareholders will decide whether to transfer the crop chemicals unit into a standalone subsidiary, a necessary step before a planned initial public offering on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in 2027.

If approved, the new entity will have its own management board from May 1, 2026. Livio Tedeschi, who has led the division since 2022, will take the helm. The move represents one of the most significant strategic shifts in BASF’s recent history, carving out a business that has long been a core part of the group’s portfolio.

Dividends and Buybacks

Also up for a vote is the dividend proposal. The supervisory and management boards are recommending a payout of €2.25 per share for the 2025 financial year. If shareholders give the nod, the distribution is scheduled for May 6.

Alongside the dividend, BASF is running an ongoing share buyback programme worth up to €1.5 billion. As of mid-April, the company had repurchased nearly 19.4 million shares. The programme is on track to conclude by the end of June.

A Day of Reckoning

Thursday’s packed schedule means shareholders will get fresh quarterly numbers just before they file into the AGM hall — giving them the chance to react in real time. Whether the price increases announced this week will actually stick with customers remains an open question, and the first-quarter figures will offer the first glimpse of how the additives business performed before the hikes took effect.

For now, BASF’s stock sits tantalisingly close to its 52-week peak. The question is whether the combination of cost-cutting, price rises, and a historic spin-off can push it through that ceiling — or whether the currency headwinds and cautious guidance will hold it back.