BASF’s First-Quarter Earnings Stir a Deep Divide Among Analysts

BASF reports mixed Q1 earnings with EBITDA slipping to €2.356B, as Goldman Sachs and Barclays diverge sharply on stock outlook, ranging from €40 to €63 price targets.

The numbers are in, and the verdict on BASF is anything but unanimous. Europe’s largest chemical company posted first-quarter earnings that, while solid, have done little to bridge the gulf between Wall Street optimists and skeptics. The stock, which has been on a steady upward trajectory over the past year, now finds itself caught between a bullish outlook from Goldman Sachs and a deeply bearish stance from Barclays.

A Mixed Bag of Results

For the three months ending March 2026, BASF reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) before special items of €2.356 billion—marginally below the €2.4 billion figure from the same period a year earlier. Revenue slipped to €16.02 billion, reflecting persistent headwinds in Europe and negative currency effects. Yet earnings per share climbed from €0.91 to €1.06, a sign that the company’s cost-cutting measures are beginning to bear fruit.

Chief Financial Officer Dirk Elvermann described the quarter as a testament to the group’s resilience. Volumes grew, particularly in China, which remained the primary growth engine and helped offset weakness elsewhere. But the European business continues to struggle under the weight of geopolitical tensions that have disrupted supply chains and inflated energy costs since March 2026.

The Analyst Split: From €40 to €63

The divergence in analyst opinion is stark. Goldman Sachs maintains a “Buy” rating with a price target of €63, while Bernstein Research is equally bullish with an “Outperform” and a target of €61. The Deutsche Bank sits in the middle with a “Buy” and a €55 target. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Barclays sticks to its “Underweight” rating, assigning a price target of just €40—implying significant downside from current levels.

Barclays analyst Katie Richards, whose view stands as the most pessimistic on the Street, argues that the company’s prospects remain too uncertain to justify a higher valuation. The British bank’s skepticism contrasts sharply with the optimism of Goldman Sachs, leaving investors to navigate a wide range of possible outcomes.

Dividend Day and the Technical Reset

On Monday, May 4, the stock went ex-dividend, with the €2.25 per share payout approved at the annual general meeting in Mannheim on April 30. That technical adjustment knocked the share price down to €52.69 at the close. By Tuesday, the stock had recovered to €53.31, a gain of 1.3% on the day. Over the past 12 months, the shares have gained roughly 24%, and they now trade comfortably above all key moving averages.

The dividend itself will be paid to shareholders on May 6. It forms part of a broader capital return program that management has laid out for the period from 2025 to 2028. The company plans to distribute at least €12 billion to shareholders over that span—roughly €8 billion through dividends and €4 billion through share buybacks.

Buyback Activity and the Road Ahead

The share repurchase program, launched in November 2025, has so far seen BASF buy back nearly 19.5 million of its own shares. Activity paused during the week of April 27 to May 1, but the program remains active.

Looking ahead, management has guided for full-year 2026 EBITDA before special items of between €6.2 billion and €7.0 billion. The next major checkpoint will come on July 29, when second-quarter results are due. That report will reveal whether the first-quarter revenue decline was a temporary blip or the start of a more persistent trend.

For now, the market is weighing strong volume growth in Asia against ongoing pressure on margins from raw material costs and a sluggish European economy. The outcome of that balance will determine whether the bulls or the bears ultimately prove correct.