BASF Races to Cut Costs as Buyback Support Fades and Battery Hopes Emerge

Amid industry downturn and end of €1.5B buyback, BASF launches 'CoreShift' cost cuts and solid-state battery binder Oppanol N PLUS; Goldman Sachs maintains Buy rating.

The chemicals giant BASF is navigating a punishing stretch on two fronts: a fast-approaching end to its €1.5 billion share buyback and a deepening industry downturn that has Wall Street souring on the sector. Yet the Ludwigshafen-based group is countering with a fresh cost-slashing initiative and a new battery material that could reignite growth in the electric-vehicle supply chain.

Goldman Sachs analyst Georgina Fraser on Tuesday cut her price target on BASF from €65 to €63, even as she maintained a "Buy" rating — a stance that sets the company apart from peers. Fraser downgraded Lanxess to "Sell" and moved Evonik and Symrise to "Neutral," citing a sharper-than-expected drop in demand and mounting export pressure from China. Her conviction on BASF rests on 2027 operating profit estimates that she says are "significantly" above the market consensus.

The market, however, is not sharing that optimism for now. BASF shares closed at €49.01, shedding roughly 3% on the day. The stock has fallen about 8% over the past month and now trades well below its 50-day moving average of €52.39. The relative strength index stands at 34.5, flirting with oversold territory. While the stock still shows a year-to-date gain of nearly 10%, it sits about 11% below the April high of €55.05.

One key support is about to vanish. The current €1.5 billion buyback program, launched in November 2025, is scheduled to conclude at the end of June 2026. BASF bought back roughly 2.75 million shares in the first week of June alone, bringing the total repurchased since the program began to around 27.8 million shares. Under its capital allocation plan, the company has pledged to return at least €12 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks between 2025 and 2028. The question is when — and at what pace — the next tranche will arrive. Management has not yet provided a timeline.

To fill that vacuum, BASF is turning inward. The "CoreShift" program, headed by Julia Raquet and overseen by a newly formed Core Transformation Office, targets a reduction in cash-effective fixed costs of up to 20% by 2029. The initiative covers four core segments that together generate roughly €40 billion in revenue. CEO Markus Kamieth has called it one of the largest optimization programs in the company's history. The plan involves streamlining processes globally, increasing the use of artificial intelligence, and reducing headcount — though specific job-cut numbers have not been announced, as talks with worker representatives are just beginning.

On the product development side, BASF used the Battery Show Europe in Stuttgart (running June 9–11) to unveil Oppanol N PLUS, a binder specifically engineered for next-generation solid-state batteries. The material is designed to compensate for mechanical stress during charging and discharging, and to suppress unwanted side reactions. The innovation targets a technology that many in the auto industry see as the next leap in electric vehicle range and safety, giving BASF an early foothold in a potentially high-growth segment.

The wider chemical industry remains under pressure. The German chemical association VCI has lamented high energy costs and global turbulence, and it is declining to offer a reliable forecast for 2026. BASF itself expects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes for the full year of 2026 to land between €6.2 billion and €7.0 billion.

The next major test for the stock will come on July 30, 2026, when BASF releases its half-year report. At that point management will need to recalibrate its full-year outlook against a rapidly shifting macroeconomic and competitive landscape — and investors will get a clearer sense of whether the CoreShift savings and battery bet can outweigh the expiry of the buyback crutch.