Barrick Shares Under Pressure as Mali Output Plummets

Barrick CA06849F1080

Barrick Gold shares closed the trading week down 1.83% at $48.73, reflecting investor concern following the release of stark production data from Mali. The West African nation's government published detailed 2025 figures for the first time, confirming a severe operational crisis that is impacting the miner's most significant regional asset.

Official data released on Friday reveals the tangible cost of the dispute over Mali's new mining code. The conflict has severely hampered operations at Barrick's key complex in the country.

• Dramatic Decline: Barrick's 2025 gold production in Mali collapsed to just 5.5 tonnes, a sharp fall from the 22.5 tonnes produced the previous year.
• Leadership Lost: Competitor B2Gold, with an output of 17.5 tonnes, has now overtaken Barrick to become the largest gold producer in Mali.
• Root Cause and Cost: The enforcement of the stricter mining code forced an operational halt. Resuming operations cost the company approximately $430 million.

The crisis had already shown signs in the third quarter, with Barrick's gold sales declining by 13% to 837,000 ounces. The newly released Mali numbers provide the clear explanation for that downturn.

Soaring Gold Price Provides Partial Buffer

Despite the production shock, Barrick's stock price remains near its 52-week high of $50.51. This resilience is largely attributed to record-high gold prices, which are helping to offset the lost volume. However, the company has been forced to significantly revise its annual guidance downward.

• 2025 Production Forecast: Barrick now anticipates full-year production of only 3.15 to 3.5 million ounces, compared to 3.91 million ounces in 2024.
• Q4 Expectations: Market analysts project fourth-quarter output of around 881,000 ounces, representing an 18% year-over-year decrease.
• Margin Pressure: With lower overall production volumes, the all-in sustaining costs per ounce are mathematically pushed higher. This squeezes margins despite the favorable gold price environment.

Barrick is not alone in facing these regional challenges. Newmont reported a 16% drop in sales, while Agnico Eagle managed to post a slight increase.

Investor Focus Shifts to Upcoming Costs and Recovery

All eyes are now on Barrick's full-year 2025 financial results, scheduled for release on February 5, 2026. A key metric will be the "All-In Sustaining Costs" (AISC) per ounce, which is expected to show a marked increase, quantifying the profitability impact of the Mali disruption.

The majority of analysts maintain a "Buy" rating on the stock, betting on a operational recovery in 2026 as the Loulo-Gounkoto complex returns to full capacity. From a technical chart perspective, the next level of support for the share price is seen at $47. A sustained breakout above the $50.51 resistance level would signal that investors believe the Mali crisis is fully priced in and behind the company.