Barrick’s Strategic Pivot: Unlocking Value Through a Potential North American Spin-Off

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Barrick Gold's shareholders have witnessed a remarkable 180% surge in the share price over the last twelve months, a rally driven by robust gold prices and a comprehensive corporate transformation. The market's focus is now intensifying on a potential separation of its North American operations—a major strategic move whose success hinges on an unlikely partner: rival miner Newmont.

According to a January 23 Reuters report, Barrick's proposed spin-off of its North American assets is entirely dependent on securing approval from its joint venture partner, Newmont. The U.S.-based mining giant holds pre-emptive rights over Barrick's stake in the Nevada Gold Mines venture. This dynamic represents a notable shift, given that Barrick itself attempted to acquire Newmont over a decade ago.

The North American business segment is estimated to be worth approximately $42 billion. Market analysts suggest that a standalone entity could command a higher market valuation than it currently holds within the broader corporate structure. However, before proceeding, Barrick must navigate the intricate ownership and rights framework of its partnership with Newmont.

Key Aspects of the Proposed Restructuring

• The spin-off would center on high-quality assets located in Nevada and the Dominican Republic.
• Barrick intends to retain a significant ownership stake in the newly formed company.
• Further details regarding the deal's structure and timeline are anticipated alongside the Q4 earnings release in February.
• Interim CEO Mark Hill is overseeing daily operations while the search for a permanent chief executive continues.

Consequently, the planned separation is not merely a valuation exercise but also a practical test of the efficacy of the partnership with Newmont.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds from Gold

Adding further momentum, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its year-end gold price forecast on January 22. The new target is $5,400 per ounce, a substantial increase from the previous $4,900 projection. The firm's optimistic outlook is based on two structural drivers:
- Sustained purchases by private investors using gold as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.
- Continued diversification by emerging market central banks, which are expected to add an average of 60 tonnes per year.

For Barrick, such a price environment would significantly boost free cash flow, given its relatively stable production costs. The combination of a potential valuation uplift from the spin-off and a supportive gold market is a central reason for the stock's recent strong performance.

Leadership Reshuffle Following a Challenging Period

Barrick is also undergoing a management renewal. On January 19, the company announced the appointment of Helen Cai as its new Chief Financial Officer. Cai brings over two decades of experience in equity research, corporate finance, and M&A from roles at Goldman Sachs and China International Capital Corporation, covering sectors including commodities, industrials, and technology.

This appointment runs parallel to the ongoing search for a new CEO, following a turbulent 2025. During that period, Mali's military regime temporarily placed one of the company's mines under state control before a mutually agreeable resolution was reached. Executive Chairman John Thornton is steering this management overhaul with the aim of reinforcing investor confidence.

Stock Performance and Market Context

Barrick's share price reached a new 52-week high of €43.19 on Friday, cementing its impressive 180% twelve-month advance. The stock is trading decisively above its key 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, underscoring the strength of its upward trajectory.

This performance is supported by fundamental strength. In Q3 2025, Barrick delivered record results: gold production increased sequentially by 4%, while its attributable gold EBITDA jumped 25% quarter-over-quarter. Concurrently, the company raised its base dividend by 25% and announced an expanded share buyback program of $1.5 billion. This blend of growing profitability and shareholder-friendly capital allocation is clearly reflected in the equity's gains.

Q4 Earnings as the Next Catalyst

All eyes are on Barrick's upcoming full-year and Q4 2025 results, scheduled for release on February 5, 2026. The market will likely focus on three critical areas: more concrete details on the planned North American asset separation, margin performance in the context of higher gold prices, and progress in the management transition. The interplay of these factors will be crucial in determining whether the stock's current rally continues or if a period of consolidation is due.