Barrick’s Share Price Hinges on IPO Plans Amid Partner Dispute

Barrick Mining CA0679011084

Despite reporting its strongest quarterly financial performance on record, Barrick Mining's share price has shown a muted response. Investor attention appears firmly fixed on the company's upcoming strategic moves, particularly a planned initial public offering (North American assets, rather than celebrating the recent operational results. A complicating factor is a public disagreement with its joint venture partner, Newmont Corporation.

The fourth quarter of 2025 saw Barrick generate unprecedented financial metrics. The company reported an operating cash flow of approximately $2.73 billion and a free cash flow of roughly $1.62 billion. On a per-share basis, GAAP earnings came in at $1.43, with adjusted earnings of $1.04.

Nevertheless, the anticipated stock market rally did not materialize. Market observers suggest this caution stems from a focus on future growth prospects rather than past performance. Profit-taking following a significant twelve-month rally and potentially demanding valuations entering 2026 are also considered contributing factors to the subdued market reaction.

Newmont Conflict Adds Complexity to Strategic Plans

Tensions with partner Newmont over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture introduce significant uncertainty. Newmont has publicly criticized the operational performance under Barrick's management, increasing pressure on the leadership team.

Reports indicate Newmont is prepared to invoke protective clauses within the joint venture agreement. This action could challenge or, in a worst-case scenario, obstruct Barrick's intended IPO process. The core disagreements revolve around three areas: recent operational performance, the proposed structure of a potential spin-off or sale, and the division of value between the partners. This public dispute has the potential to influence deal terms, governance considerations, and the risk assessment of prospective investors.

The Road Ahead: IPO Timeline and 2026 Guidance

In early February, Barrick announced preparations for a public listing of its North American gold assets. This portfolio includes stakes in Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, and the Fourmile deposit. The current plan involves selling a minority stake of 10% to 15% in the new entity, targeting a launch late in 2026.

Looking at production for the coming year, Barrick provided guidance for 2026 gold output of 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces. Adjusted for divested assets, this range is broadly consistent with prior-year levels. On costs, the company anticipates inflationary pressures will provide headwinds. All-in Sustaining Costs are expected to rise somewhat, partly due to continued investment in development projects.

Consequently, three key issues are likely to dictate Barrick's narrative in the coming months: the evolution of the Newmont partnership dispute, the specific structuring of the North American IPO (including potential regulatory conditions), and the company's ability to meet its 2026 production and cost guidance.

@ boerse-global.de | CA0679011084 BARRICK’S