Barrick’s Record Cash Flow and $4,823 Gold Price Fuel a Dual Push Into Copper and Shareholder Returns

Barrick reports record free cash flow and profit surge, yet stock slips 14% from highs. Copper expansion on track, $3B buyback, and spin-off of North American assets by 2026.

The disconnect between Barrick Mining’s operational performance and its stock price is widening. Despite reporting a surge in profit and record free cash flow, the miner’s shares slipped for three consecutive sessions, closing at $41.30 in New York on Wednesday. In Toronto, the stock ended at C$61.50, up 7.52% on the week but still 14.42% below its late-January high.

The tension lies in perception versus reality. On the ground, Barrick is minting money. The realized gold price hit $4,823 per ounce in the first quarter, a 66% surge year-on-year, pushing the attributable EBITDA margin to the same level. All-in sustaining costs actually fell 4% to $1,708 per ounce — a rare feat in a sector grappling with inflationary pressure. Gold output came in at 719,000 ounces, slightly below the prior year but above the company’s own target range. Adjusted earnings per share reached $0.98, comfortably beating analyst expectations.

Copper is quickly emerging as the second engine. Production totalled 49,000 tonnes in the quarter, exactly in line with guidance, and Barrick is sticking to its full-year target of roughly 200,000 tonnes. The centrepiece of the copper strategy is the Lumwana Super Pit expansion in Zambia, a $2 billion project that remains on schedule. Key mill components have already arrived at the site, and the expanded operation is expected to start commercial production in early 2028. Capital expenditure for this year will trend toward the low end of the $750 million to $850 million range.

The financial strength behind these investments is formidable. Operating cash flow came in at $2.55 billion for the quarter, while attributable free cash flow reached $1.21 billion. Barrick ended the period with net cash of $2.4 billion, giving it ample liquidity to fund both growth and distributions. Shareholders will receive a quarterly dividend of $0.175 per share in June, and a new $3 billion share buyback authorization adds flexibility. The company’s top-up policy aims to return 50% of annual attributable free cash flow to investors on top of the base dividend.

Strategic restructuring continues alongside the operational momentum. Management confirmed plans to spin off Barrick’s North American assets — including Nevada Gold Mines — through a partial initial public offering of a minority stake by the end of 2026. The move is designed to unlock the value of those holdings, which analysts argue is currently obscured within the broader corporate structure.

Several investment banks raised their price targets this week in response to the strong quarterly numbers. UBS lifted its target to $54 with a buy rating. National Bank raised its estimate to C$75, while Stifel Canada kept its fair-value view at C$95.

Looking ahead, Barrick expects gold production to climb in the second quarter, forecasting between 730,000 and 770,000 ounces. The full-year 2026 guidance remains unchanged at 2.90 million to 3.25 million ounces. Exploration projects such as Fourmile in Nevada continue to deliver positive drill results, though Reko Diq in Pakistan remains paused pending security reviews. With both gold and copper riding strong prices and a balance sheet built for endurance, Barrick is positioning itself to deliver on multiple fronts — even if the market needs time to catch up.