Barrick’s Busiest Week of the Year: AGM, Earnings, and a Crucial Dividend Overhaul

Barrick Mining faces a pivotal week with AGM vote on new dividend policy, Q1 earnings expected to drop, and security issues slowing its $6B Reko Diq copper-gold project.

Barrick Mining’s calendar is packed. On Thursday, management will face shareholders virtually for the annual general meeting. Monday brings the first-quarter earnings release. And hanging over both events is a pair of structural shifts that could redefine the company’s future: a planned spin-off of its North American gold mines and a massive copper-gold project in Pakistan that is running into trouble.

A New Payout Model Goes to a Vote

The AGM on May 8 at 16:00 CET is more than a formality. Barrick is asking investors to approve a slate of ten directors, with a push toward greater board diversity. Executive compensation is also on the ballot.

The headline item, however, is a revamped dividend strategy. Barrick intends to target a payout of 50 percent of free cash flow, with a quarterly base dividend rising to 17.5 US cents per share — a 40 percent increase from the previous level. The catch: the company is scrapping its share buyback program entirely. A year-end bonus payment, tied to annual performance, will supplement the quarterly distribution.

Q1 Earnings: The Bar Is Set Low

When Barrick opens its books on May 11, analysts expect earnings of roughly 0.79 US dollars per share on revenue of about 4.76 billion US dollars. That would mark a sharp drop from the fourth quarter of 2025, when the miner delivered 1.04 US dollars per share and beat consensus by 19 cents.

Management has already telegraphed that the first quarter will be the weakest of the year for both gold and copper production. The company is targeting full-year gold output of up to 3.25 million ounces, based on a gold price assumption of 4,500 US dollars per ounce. The Q1 numbers will provide the first real test of whether that guidance holds.

Raymond James Trims Its Target

Raymond James has nudged its price target for Barrick down to 61 US dollars from 62, while maintaining an “Outperform” rating. The bank cited updated production forecasts and deteriorating security conditions in Pakistan as reasons for the adjustment.

The stock closed recently at 52.76 Canadian dollars, down roughly 12 percent year-to-date and nearly 9 percent below its 50-day moving average. It is trading well off its 2025 high of 71.86 Canadian dollars. The average analyst target from 15 ratings over the past three months stands at 59.82 US dollars, with a range of 46 to 69.23 US dollars. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it a buy and four recommend holding.

Reko Diq: The $6 Billion Question

The biggest cloud over Barrick’s outlook is Reko Diq, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits. Barrick owns 50 percent of the project; the rest is held by Pakistani state-owned enterprises and the provincial government of Balochistan.

Security risks in the region have forced Barrick to slow development. The company has extended the project review phase by 12 months, now running through mid-2027. Phase 1 was originally budgeted at 5.6 to 6.0 billion US dollars, with Phase 2 requiring an additional 3.3 to 3.6 billion US dollars. Both figures are expected to rise.

Barrick has warned openly about potential cost overruns. How heavily Reko Diq will weigh on capital allocation in the coming years is a question management will have to address directly on May 11.

Spin-Off Shifts the Center of Gravity

Alongside the Pakistan headache, Barrick is pushing ahead with plans to spin off its North American gold mines. The new entity is slated to list in New York, with a secondary listing in Toronto. The goal is a cleaner corporate structure that shifts focus away from Canada.

The move raises practical questions for investors. Index weighting will change, and the allocation of project capital between the global portfolio and the North American business will be rebalanced. The spin-off effectively redraws the risk profile of the remaining company.

For now, the market is waiting for hard data. The next few days will deliver the first real evidence of whether Barrick’s operational momentum can withstand the twin pressures of a delayed mega-project and a fundamental corporate restructuring.