Barrick Mining’s Make-or-Break Week: New CEO, IPO Ambitions, and a Gold-Price Squeeze

Barrick Mining enters a pivotal week as new CEO Mark Hill delivers his first quarterly report amid sliding gold prices and a planned North American asset IPO that could reshape valuation.

Barrick Mining enters one of its most consequential weeks in recent memory, with a new chief executive about to deliver his first quarterly report against a backdrop of sliding gold prices, a planned spin-off that could reshape the company’s valuation, and a stock that has shed more than a fifth of its value since late January.

The Toronto-listed shares closed at 56.14 Canadian dollars last week, down over 5 percent in five sessions. That pullback comes after a blistering rally of roughly 93 percent between July 2025 and April 2026, fueled by a surge in earnings and climbing commodity prices. But the momentum has stalled. Since hitting an all-time high of 52.54 US dollars on January 28, the stock has fallen more than 21 percent.

The culprit is largely the yellow metal itself. Gold slipped more than 2 percent last week to trade at 4,574.90 US dollars an ounce, pressured by rising energy costs linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran negotiations. Those higher energy prices are stoking inflation fears, keeping expectations for interest-rate cuts low and weighing on gold, which offers no yield.

A New Hand at the Helm

Mark Hill steps into the spotlight on May 8, when Barrick holds its virtual annual general meeting — an early gauge of investor sentiment under the new leadership. Three days later, on May 11, the company releases its first-quarter results for 2026, the first set of numbers Hill will present as CEO.

Analysts expect earnings to jump nearly 50 percent year over year. But the headline figure may matter less than whether Barrick remains on track to hit its full-year targets: gold production of 2.90 million to 3.25 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs of 1,760 to 1,950 US dollars per ounce. Management has already flagged that output will be heavily weighted toward the second half of the year.

The company’s 2025 full-year results underscore the operational strength Hill inherits. Barrick posted record revenue of 16.96 billion dollars and adjusted net income of 4.14 billion dollars, with gold AISC averaging 1,637 dollars per ounce. For 2026, copper production is expected to range between 192,000 and 220,000 tonnes.

The IPO Wild Card

The strategic centerpiece of Barrick’s transformation is the planned initial public offering of a new entity that would bundle the company’s North American crown jewels. Goldman Sachs is leading the IPO, which is expected to list a 10 to 15 percent stake in the so-called NewCo by the end of 2026.

The vehicle would combine Barrick’s joint-venture interest in Nevada Gold Mines, the Pueblo Viejo project, and the promising Fourmile gold discovery in Nevada. RBC analyst Josh Wolfson estimates that Nevada Gold Mines alone accounts for roughly 60 percent of Barrick’s market value. An IPO in the second half of 2026 could unlock that value and trigger a revaluation of the parent company, which analysts say trades at a discount of 27 to 71 percent to the sector median on key multiples — despite superior growth and strong capital returns.

Analyst Conviction Holds

Despite the recent share-price weakness, Wall Street remains broadly bullish. CIBC cut its price target to 63 from 67 US dollars but maintained an “Outperformer” rating, calling the current level an attractive entry point. The consensus rating from 15 analysts is “Strong Buy,” with 13 buy recommendations and two holds. The average 12-month target stands at 59.82 US dollars, while the Toronto-listed consensus target is 79.63 Canadian dollars. Eighteen of 24 analysts covering the stock rate it a buy.

J.P. Morgan sees gold climbing to 5,000 US dollars an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by central-bank and investor demand averaging 585 tonnes per quarter. For Barrick, that would provide substantial tailwinds.

The Week Ahead

The May 11 earnings release will be scrutinized for any hints about the IPO timeline and whether the company can deliver on its production guidance. The stock currently trades at 55.14 Canadian dollars, roughly 6 percent below last week’s close, and has given up about 30 percent of its value from the January peak. The gap between the current price and the consensus target implies significant upside — but the path depends on gold stabilizing, costs staying in check, and the NewCo story gaining traction with investors.