Barrick Mining’s $42 Billion Spin-Off Faces a Reality Check as New CEO Takes the Helm

New CEO Mark Hill navigates a $42B North American spin-off, a costly Pakistan project delay, and a 23% stock dip, despite strong cash flow and Zambia expansion.

Mark Hill has barely settled into the corner office at Barrick Mining, yet the new chief executive already faces a daunting inbox. On one side sits a transformative plan to spin off the company’s prized North American assets in a blockbuster initial public offering. On the other, a costly delay at a flagship copper-gold project in Pakistan and a gold price that has lost its luster since January.

The stock closed at C$55.38 yesterday, down roughly 23% from its January peak and off about 8% since the start of the year. Over a 12-month horizon, however, shareholders still sit on a 112% gain — a reminder of just how far the shares have traveled before this pullback.

The Spin-Off That Could Reshape the Company

Barrick’s most consequential strategic move is the planned carve-out of its North American operations into a new entity dubbed “NewCo.” Goldman Sachs has been tapped as the lead bank for the listing, which is targeting the second half of 2026. The vehicle will bundle the company’s stake in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture and other high-quality assets.

Citigroup analysts estimate the spin-off could command a valuation of up to $42 billion. The pitch is aimed squarely at institutional investors hungry for pure-play gold exposure without the geopolitical headaches that come with emerging-market operations.

The IPO has the potential to fundamentally alter how the market values Barrick, unlocking value that analysts argue is currently obscured by the conglomerate structure.

Pakistan Setback Clouds the Outlook

Those emerging-market risks are proving all too real in Asia. Barrick has slowed the pace of its Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan, pushing back a review of the facility to mid-2027. Management cited escalating security risks in the region as the trigger for the delay.

The timeline shift carries a heavy price tag. Barrick had originally budgeted up to $6 billion for the first construction phase and roughly $3.6 billion for the second. First production targets for 2028 are now looking shaky, and the company expects significant cost overruns across both phases.

The setback is a reminder that even the most promising projects can be derailed by forces beyond a miner’s control.

A Bright Spot in Zambia

Not all of Barrick’s operations are hitting headwinds. The massive expansion of the Lumwana mine in Zambia is running ahead of schedule. Barrick has raised its copper production targets for 2025 as a result.

The expansion will double processing capacity and extend the mine’s life through 2057, with average annual output expected to reach 240,000 tonnes of copper. It’s a rare piece of good news in an otherwise mixed operational picture.

The Numbers That Matter

Despite the operational challenges, Barrick’s financial foundation remains sturdy. The company generated nearly $4 billion in free cash flow last year, prompting the board to lift the quarterly dividend to $0.175 per share.

That strong cash generation has kept Wall Street broadly constructive. CIBC trimmed its price target slightly to $63 but maintained a buy rating, arguing the current level offers a solid entry point. The consensus of 15 analysts leans heavily toward buy recommendations, with an average target of roughly $60.

The New CEO’s First Test

All eyes are now on May 11, when Hill presents his first quarterly results. Analysts expect a sharp year-over-year profit jump, but the real focus will be on whether management reaffirms its full-year guidance.

Barrick is targeting production of up to 3.25 million ounces of gold, with all-in sustaining costs capped at $1,950 per ounce. Hitting those numbers would go a long way toward restoring confidence.

Gold itself has been a headwind, slipping to around $4,575 an ounce recently. Geopolitical tensions have pushed energy prices higher, reigniting inflation and interest-rate fears that weigh on non-yielding assets like bullion.

The virtual annual general meeting on May 8 will give investors an early preview of the tone before the quarterly numbers land three days later.

For Hill, the next few weeks are about proving that Barrick can execute on multiple fronts simultaneously: delivering a transformative spin-off, managing a troubled project in Pakistan, and keeping the core business humming. The market is watching — and waiting.