Barrick Mining Faces a Pivotal Crossroads as Gold Price Slips and New CEO Prepares First Report

Barrick Mining's stock drops 21% from highs amid gold price weakness, while Q1 profit surge, new CEO Mark Hill, and Reko Diq delays shape the outlook.

The disconnect between Barrick Mining’s operational strength and its stock performance has rarely been starker. While the gold miner’s underlying business is generating robust cash flows and analysts are penciling in a near-50% profit surge for the first quarter, the share price has been sliding steadily since late January. The Toronto-listed stock closed last week at C$56.14, representing a decline of more than 21% from its all-time high of US$52.54 reached on January 28. That pullback comes after a blistering 93% rally between July 2025 and April 2026, fueled by soaring commodity prices and a sharp improvement in earnings.

The immediate culprit is a softening gold market. Bullion has retreated from recent peaks, losing more than 2% last week alone to trade at US$4,574.90 per ounce — a far cry from the near-US$4,700 level that had investors cheering just weeks earlier. The primary headwind is geopolitical: the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent energy prices climbing, stoking inflation fears and dimming hopes for interest rate cuts. That dynamic is particularly punishing for gold, which offers no yield and tends to suffer when real rates remain elevated.

A New Sheriff Takes the Reins

All eyes are now on May 11, when Barrick will release its first-quarter results — the maiden financial report under new CEO Mark Hill. The numbers are expected to be strong: analysts forecast a profit jump of roughly 50% year-over-year. But the market’s focus will be less on the backward-looking figures and more on whether the company can reaffirm its full-year production target of 2.90 to 3.25 million ounces of gold. The all-in sustaining costs (AISC) guidance of US$1,760 to US$1,950 per ounce will also be scrutinized, especially given that management has already flagged a heavier weighting toward the second half of the year.

Three days before the earnings release, on May 8, Hill will face shareholders at the company’s virtual annual general meeting. It will be an early test of his ability to navigate the challenges ahead — not least the escalating cost pressures and a troubled development project in Pakistan.

Reko Diq: A Costly Delay

Barrick’s massive copper-gold project in Pakistan, Reko Diq, is running into trouble. Security concerns on the ground have forced management to extend the development review period until mid-2027. The original budget of up to US$6 billion now looks increasingly optimistic, and analysts expect significant upward revisions. For a company that prides itself on disciplined capital allocation, the slippage is an unwelcome distraction — and a potential drag on sentiment.

The IPO Catalyst That Could Reshape the Story

Offsetting some of the near-term headwinds is the prospect of a major structural shake-up. Barrick is preparing to spin off its North American operations — a collection of assets including Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, and the Fourmile project — into a separate entity provisionally dubbed “NewCo.” Goldman Sachs has been mandated to lead the initial public offering, which could take place in the second half of 2026.

RBC analyst Josh Wolfson estimates that Nevada Gold Mines alone accounts for roughly 60% of Barrick’s enterprise value. Unlocking that through a listing could trigger a re-rating of the parent company, as investors gain direct exposure to what is arguably one of the world’s best gold mining complexes. CIBC, which rates the stock an “Outperformer,” recently trimmed its price target to US$63 from US$67 but described the current level as an attractive entry point. The broader Street consensus remains bullish: of 15 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it a “Buy” and just two a “Hold,” with a 12-month average target of US$59.82.

Gold’s Long-Term Backdrop Remains Supportive

Despite the recent pullback, the macro case for gold remains intact. J.P. Morgan sees bullion climbing to US$5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, underpinned by sustained central bank buying and investor demand averaging 585 tonnes per quarter. For Barrick, such a scenario would provide a powerful tailwind, boosting both revenue and free cash flow — which already stood at nearly US$4 billion last year. The quarterly dividend of US$0.175 per share currently offers a modest but steady return while investors wait for the bigger catalysts to materialize.

The Bottom Line

Barrick Mining is entering a period of intense scrutiny. A new CEO is about to deliver his first quarterly report, a flagship project is facing delays and cost overruns, and the stock is giving back gains after a spectacular run. Yet the strategic rationale for the NewCo IPO, combined with a still-supportive gold market and a strong balance sheet, suggests the current weakness may be temporary. The next two weeks — with the AGM, the earnings release, and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision all looming — will go a long way toward determining whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.