Barrick Mining Faces a Cross-Current: Soaring Gold Prices Meet Soaring Costs and Project Delays

Barrick Mining heads into Q1 earnings with stock up 127% but below January highs. Analysts expect 45% revenue jump to $4.5B, while rising costs and 14% production decline test margins. IPO spin-off planned for 2026.

Investors in Barrick Mining head into Monday’s earnings release with a mixed picture. The stock has rallied 127% over the past year, closing Friday at C$59.05, but that still sits 18% below the January high of C$71.86. The options market is pricing in an unusually volatile session ahead of the first-quarter numbers, a sign that traders expect either a big move or a sharp reality check.

Analysts are forecasting earnings of $0.74 per share, more than double the year-ago level, while revenue is seen jumping almost 45% to around $4.5 billion. The gold price, which Barrick internally models at $4,500 an ounce, is the obvious tailwind — every dollar above that line flows straight to the margin. But the cost side is pulling in the opposite direction. Production is estimated to have fallen 14% in the first quarter from a year earlier, and management has guided for all-in sustaining costs to hit as much as $1,950 an ounce this year, a sharp step up from previous levels.

The company is also pressing ahead with a structural overhaul. Barrick plans to spin off a minority stake in a new entity called “North American Barrick,” which will house its core U.S. and Dominican Republic assets — including the Nevada Gold Mines complex and the Pueblo Viejo mine. The portfolio produced roughly 2.0 million ounces of gold in 2025. The initial public offering is targeted for completion by the end of 2026, with a primary listing in New York and a secondary listing in Toronto. Barrick will retain majority control. Alongside this, the miner has set a new dividend framework that commits to paying out half of its free cash flow.

Half a world away, Barrick’s Reko-Diq project in Pakistan is running into trouble. Growing security concerns have forced the company to extend its project review until mid-2027, casting doubt on earlier cost estimates. The first phase alone was budgeted at up to $6 billion, and Raymond James has already trimmed its price target on Barrick stock to $61 because of the delays.

For the full year, Barrick expects to produce between 2.90 million and 3.25 million ounces of gold, plus up to 220,000 tonnes of copper. Long-term growth projects at Fourmile in Nevada and the Lumwana expansion in Zambia are meant to underpin future output, but the immediate question is whether this quarter’s margins can hold up under rising cost pressure. The stock is trading comfortably above its 200-day moving average, yet the gap to the January peak suggests the market is waiting for proof that the gold rally is actually translating into bottom-line earnings, not just higher costs.