Barrick Gold’s Strategic Moves Spark Analyst Optimism for Significant Upside

Barrick CA06849F1080

Market analysts are turning increasingly bullish on Barrick Gold Corporation, with BNP Paribas Exane issuing a notable upgrade. The French financial institution shifted its rating on the Canadian mining giant from "Neutral" to "Outperform" late last week, concurrently setting a price target of $50 per share. This projection implies a potential upside of approximately 22% from recent trading levels. The timing of this upgrade aligns with a pivotal corporate strategy unfolding at Barrick, centered on a potential separation of its core North American gold assets.

The company's strategic direction is a key driver behind the renewed analyst confidence. In early December, Barrick confirmed it is exploring an initial public offering (IPO) for a new subsidiary. This proposed entity, often referred to as "NewCo," would consolidate the company's premier North American gold holdings. These assets include Nevada Gold Mines—the world's largest gold mining complex, operated as a joint venture with Newmont Corporation—the flagship Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic, and the wholly-owned Fourmile project in Nevada. Barrick has described Fourmile as "one of the most significant gold discoveries of this century."

Mark Hill, Barrick's Interim CEO, explained that the move aims to provide shareholders with "greater optionality." While Barrick would retain a majority stake in the newly listed company, a separate public listing could allow both entities to more effectively articulate their distinct growth narratives to the market.

This strategic review accompanies an ongoing effort to streamline Barrick's portfolio. The recent sale of the Tongon mine to the Atlantic Group is expected to generate up to $305 million. Combined with earlier divestments, including interests in Hemlo, Donlin, and Alturas, Barrick anticipates total proceeds from asset sales to reach around $2.6 billion by 2025. The overarching goal is a sharper focus on tier-one gold and copper operations.

Widespread Institutional and Analyst Confidence

BNP Paribas Exane is not alone in its positive assessment. The analyst community broadly reflects this optimistic stance. UBS recently raised its price target on Barrick shares from $39 to $47, maintaining a "Buy" recommendation. Similarly, Cormark Securities upgraded the stock from "Hold" to "Moderate Buy." According to data from MarketBeat, the consensus view is strongly favorable, with 16 analysts recommending "Buy" against only three advising "Hold." The average price target among analysts currently stands at $46.45.

Institutional investors are also demonstrating solid conviction. Capital International Investors significantly increased its position during the third quarter, boosting its holdings by 35.9% to over 101 million shares. Vanguard Group also expanded its stake by 1.1%. Overall, institutional investors control nearly 91% of Barrick's outstanding shares.

The company's operational foundation supports this confidence. Barrick's third-quarter 2025 results showed a marked improvement in both revenue and profit compared to the prior-year period, fueled by stronger gold prices and consistent production. The proposed corporate restructuring and strategic refocus are now seen as potential catalysts that could unlock further value for shareholders.