AST SpaceMobile’s Trio of BlueBird Satellites Faces a Make-or-Break Launch as Headwinds Batter the Stock

Three BlueBird satellites launch on SpaceX Falcon 9 after predecessor's failure. Stock down 37% from highs as sector headwinds mount, but liquidity of $3.5B offers buffer.

AST SpaceMobile is approaching a pivotal moment that will test both its orbital ambitions and its battered share price. Three BlueBird satellites—numbers 8, 9 and 10—are poised to lift off from Cape Canaveral aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket during a window starting at 2:39 AM EDT. The mission is anything but routine. After a predecessor, BlueBird 7, had to be deliberately deorbited in April because a New Glenn rocket dropped it into too low an orbit, the company now needs a clean deployment to prove its operational maturity.

The stock has already been punished severely. Trading at around €72.30, the shares sit nearly 37% below the May high of €114.60 and roughly 38% off the 52-week record. On a year-to-date basis, AST SpaceMobile still shows a gain of almost 99%, but the volatility has rattled investors. A single trading day on June 12 saw roughly 54 million shares change hands—172% above the three-month average—as selling pressure intensified.

The broader sector headwind is unmistakable. The recent initial public offering of SpaceX has cast a long shadow over the entire space industry, and AST SpaceMobile, which aims to deliver direct-to-smartphone satellite broadband, finds itself competing for attention with Starlink’s giant installed base. Two major banks have responded by downgrading the stock. Barclays cut its price target from $65 to $60 and maintained an “Underweight” rating, citing an unattractive risk-reward profile despite the long-term promise of direct satellite connectivity. Deutsche Bank went a step further, downgrading from “Buy” to “Hold” and explicitly linking the move to the Blue Origin New Glenn rocket explosion that occurred during a test at the end of May. That accident, according to analysts at William Blair, could push the commercial launch of AST SpaceMobile’s satellite network into the first half of 2027—three to six months behind the original target of late 2026.

Against this backdrop, the upcoming Falcon 9 launch becomes an extraordinary pressure test. BlueBird 8, 9 and 10 each carry a 223-square-meter communications antenna designed to dramatically boost network capacity and coverage. A successful deployment would mark AST SpaceMobile’s return to multi-satellite ejection after the April mishap and send a powerful signal that operations are maturing. A failure could push the stock even lower.

Financially, the company has room to absorb setbacks—but not indefinitely. In the first quarter of 2026, AST SpaceMobile reported revenue of $14.7 million, primarily from ground-station deliveries and U.S. government contracts, and a net loss of $191 million, or $0.66 per share. Both figures missed analyst expectations. Management is sticking to its full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, roughly half of which is already in the backlog. The company holds about $3.5 billion in liquidity, and partner commitments exceed $1.2 billion, enough to fully fund the planned constellation of roughly 90 satellites. But the path to those commercial revenues depends on getting hardware into orbit.

On the manufacturing side, AST SpaceMobile has ramped production to six fully equipped BlueBird satellites per month, making the target of 45 to 60 units in orbit by year-end 2026 feasible—assuming launches stay on schedule. Technical milestones have already been achieved: a Block 1 BlueBird satellite delivered peak data rates of 98.9 Mbps over international waters, and the U.S. Federal Communications Commission has authorized commercial operations for up to 248 spacecraft. Brazil’s regulator Anatel has also granted approval.

A further strategic boost has come from the telecom industry itself. AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon have pooled their spectrum into a joint venture aimed at eliminating dead zones in the United States using satellite connectivity—a powerful endorsement of the technology AST SpaceMobile is building. The Federal Communications Commission’s commercial license covers up to 248 satellites, reinforcing the regulatory foundation.

Ultimately, this week’s launch determines the near-term trajectory. If BlueBird 8, 9 and 10 reach their intended orbit without incident, AST SpaceMobile will have cleared its most immediate technical hurdle. The company would then be positioned to report meaningful commercial revenue in the second quarter and bring its full-year sales target of up to $200 million into reach. If not, the stock’s distance from its 52-week high could widen further, and the promise of a direct-to-cell constellation will remain just that—a promise.