Assessing Rocket Lab’s Trajectory: A Window for Investors?

Rocket Lab USA US7731221062

The space sector is once again capturing the attention of the market, with Rocket Lab USA positioned as a key player. Despite recent share price pressure, some on Wall Street perceive the current moment as a potential entry point. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald maintain a bullish outlook, citing two imminent catalysts that could provide fresh momentum. This analysis delves into the rationale behind this optimism and the challenges that remain.

Rocket Lab's operational achievements are noteworthy. The company now boasts a total of 76 successful launches, placing it second only to SpaceX within the United States. A new record was set in 2025 with 18 successful launches of its Electron rocket, maintaining a 100% success rate. The firm's target of exceeding 20 launches for the full year appears attainable.

Financially, the third quarter of 2025 represented a landmark period. Revenue reached approximately $155 million, surpassing both consensus estimates and the company's own guidance. This figure marks a year-over-year growth rate of 52.4%. Furthermore, the company's backlog stands at $1.1 billion, with 57% of that amount expected to convert to revenue within the next twelve months, providing a degree of visibility for investors.

Upcoming Catalysts: Neutron and Defense Contracts

Cantor Fitzgerald highlights two near-term events that could significantly influence the stock's direction:

• Neutron Maiden Launch (Q2 2026): Designed as a medium-lift vehicle for larger satellite constellations, national security missions, and exploration, the successful debut of the Neutron rocket would represent a major technological and commercial breakthrough for the company.
• SDA Tranche 3 Award (Q1 2026): An impending decision by the Space Development Agency on a substantial government contract could further expand Rocket Lab's backlog and solidify its standing in the defense sector.

The proximity of these two events creates a potential window for positive share price movement, contingent on favorable outcomes.

The Path to Profitability and International Growth

A critical area of focus remains profitability. Over the trailing twelve months, Rocket Lab reported a negative EBITDA of $192.2 million, indicating the company is still in a cash-burning phase. A positive note is its solid liquidity position, evidenced by a current ratio of 3.18, which provides operational runway. The company's integrated model—encompassing launch services, satellite manufacturing, and component production—offers a competitive edge, yet the journey to sustained profitability is ongoing.

Expansion beyond the U.S. is gaining pace. A significant milestone is scheduled for December: the first dedicated launch for the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The mission will carry the RAISE-4 spacecraft, featuring eight distinct Japanese technologies. This contract underscores international confidence in Rocket Lab's capabilities and aids in diversifying its client base. The company has also demonstrated notable operational agility, having executed two launches within a 48-hour window, positioning itself as a flexible provider in a dynamic market.

Cantor Fitzgerald has established a price target of $72 per share, suggesting substantial upside potential. Whether this optimism is warranted will largely depend on the execution of the Neutron program and the outcome of key defense contracts. Investors are advised to monitor developments closely in the coming quarters.