ASML Shares Find Support Amid Reassuring Outlook on Chinese Market

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Investors in ASML Holding NV have found reason for cautious optimism as the semiconductor equipment giant addresses key market concerns. While navigating significant geopolitical complexities, the company has taken concrete steps to bolster confidence, most notably through a clarified revenue forecast for its crucial Chinese market.

A primary source of recent market anxiety has been the potential erosion of ASML's business in China. Fears had circulated that the company's revenue share from the region could drop below 20%. ASML has directly countered this narrative with its official guidance, stating it continues to anticipate that China will account for over 25 percent of its total sales for the full year 2025.

This five-percentage-point differential represents billions in revenue and challenges the thesis of an imminent sharp decline in Chinese demand. The resilience appears linked to sustained orders for its less-restricted Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) immersion systems. Industry analysts suggest Chinese foundries are building capacity in anticipation of potential future trade restrictions, creating a more durable demand profile than some normalization models predicted.

Share Buybacks Signal Management Confidence

Concurrent with this outlook, ASML's leadership is reinforcing its belief in the company's valuation through direct action. During the week of December 15 to 19, the firm repurchased approximately 199,858 of its own shares, with a total value nearing €181 million. This consistent corporate demand provides a technical floor for the share price, which recently closed at €898.00. Such buyback programs are widely interpreted as a signal that the executive team views the current share price as attractive, despite ongoing geopolitical headwinds.

Long-Term Competitive Threats Assessed

The financial clarity arrives alongside reports of a state-backed Chinese initiative, sometimes referred to as a "Manhattan Project," aimed at replicating advanced lithography technology. While such developments have weighed on long-term sentiment since around December 17, investors are increasingly adopting a nuanced view. Market observers generally categorize these efforts as a known long-term competitive risk rather than an immediate threat. ASML's order book remains robust, and the company's technological lead in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography is still estimated to exceed a decade.

Technical Levels and Upcoming Catalysts

From a chart perspective, the stock is defending the key €890 level, a task supported by the ongoing share repurchase initiative. Maintaining this support zone is viewed as a prerequisite for a potential recovery toward the €950 region. The market's attention is now shifting toward the quarterly results scheduled for January 2026, which will provide definitive data on regional sales distribution. The near-term trajectory for ASML shares is likely to hinge on whether the erosion of its China business occurs at a pace slower than, or in line with, the company's current guidance.