ASML Shares at a Crossroads: Diverging Views on AI-Driven Valuation

ASML USN070592100

ASML Holding NV, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant, finds its stock trading near record highs amidst a stark divide in analyst sentiment. The central debate revolves around whether the anticipated surge in artificial intelligence infrastructure spending justifies its current premium valuation, or if this potential is already fully reflected in the share price.

Amidst the valuation debate, ASML continues to execute its shareholder return strategy. The company has completed another tranche of its share buyback initiative, spending approximately 180.8 million euros. In this phase, ASML repurchased 205,580 of its own shares at prices ranging from 848.71 euros to 900.52 euros each. This ongoing reduction in the share count provides support for per-share earnings metrics and signals management's confidence in the firm's robust cash generation.

A Spectrum of Analyst Opinions Emerges

Market experts from leading institutions have issued updated assessments, presenting a wide range of outlooks.

• Jefferies adopted a cautious stance, maintaining a neutral rating despite raising its price target significantly from 795 euros to 1,020 euros. The analysts noted that the valuation has already expanded by over 75% since September 2025. With growth projections of just 4% for 2026, they question the justification for further multiple expansion.
• In contrast, Rothschild Redburn reinforced its buy recommendation, lifting its target from 1,200 euros to 1,250 euros. This optimism is rooted in expectations for order intake surpassing market consensus. The firm forecasts Q4 2025 orders of 7.05 billion euros, roughly 13% above the general market expectation. Rothschild also highlights the potential catalyst of the TSMC Technology Symposium in April 2026, where details on the High-NA EUV technology rollout are anticipated.
• Bernstein analysts turned more bullish, upgrading the stock to "Outperform" with a 1,300 euro price target. They describe a "perfect storm" of memory investment and logic chip demand driving the outlook.
• The most optimistic call comes from Aletheia Capital, which not only switched its rating from Sell to Buy but also doubled its price target to 1,500 dollars.

All Eyes on the January Earnings Report

The immediate focus for investors is ASML's quarterly results announcement scheduled for January 28, 2026. This report is expected to deliver crucial evidence regarding the sustainability of demand, particularly from the DRAM segment and foundry customers. It will also test the validity of Rothschild Redburn's bullish order intake forecasts.

Technically, the equity remains strong, trading close to its 52-week high and buoyed by sustained momentum in the AI infrastructure sector. The forthcoming earnings release is poised to offer clarity on whether the current valuation is supported by fundamental demand or has run ahead of itself.