ASML Shareholders Get Record Payout as Washington Tightens the Screws on China Chip Exports

ASML navigates US export threats to China while rewarding shareholders with record dividends and a massive buyback, buoyed by $8B EUV orders from SK Hynix.

ASML is navigating a tale of two realities. On one side, the Dutch lithography giant is showering investors with cash — a record dividend and a massive buyback program. On the other, the US Congress is advancing its most aggressive push yet to choke off the company’s sales to China, threatening a lucrative revenue stream that has already started to shrink.

The stock, which has climbed roughly 20 percent since the start of the year to trade around €1,180, has so far taken the political noise in stride. But the stakes are rising fast.

A 150-Day Clock Starts Ticking

The MATCH Act, which cleared the House Foreign Affairs Committee, now targets ASML’s older DUV lithography systems — machines the company has still been allowed to sell to Chinese customers. The legislation gives the Netherlands and Japan a 150-day window to align their export controls with US standards. If they fail, Washington is prepared to act unilaterally, expanding the Foreign Direct Product Rule to capture equipment made in Veldhoven.

The most damaging provision may be one that has flown under the radar. The bill would also prohibit servicing of machines already installed in Chinese factories. For ASML, service contracts are a high-margin, recurring revenue stream — losing them would leave a lasting dent in earnings.

China’s share of ASML’s system revenue has already fallen sharply, from 36 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 to just 19 percent in the first quarter of 2026. The retreat is already underway.

Analysts at Quilter Cheviot estimate that the DUV models caught in the crosshairs represent roughly 10 to 15 percent of total revenue, with China accounting for about half of that. That translates into a potential hit of around 5 percent — a figure they expect to diminish over time as the company pivots elsewhere.

ASML’s management has baked these risks into its 2026 guidance. CEO Christophe Fouquet said the company’s forecast range of €36 billion to €40 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 51 to 53 percent, already accounts for “potential outcomes of ongoing discussions on export controls.”

Record Orders From South Korea Provide a Cushion

While geopolitics clouds the horizon, the operational engine is firing on all cylinders. South Korea’s memory chip makers are on a spending spree. SK Hynix placed an order for EUV machines worth nearly $8 billion, with deliveries scheduled through the end of 2027. It is the largest publicly known single order for the cutting-edge technology.

Samsung has matched that ambition, ordering EUV systems of similar value last month, along with 50 older lithography tools. The result: ASML’s revenue from memory chip equipment jumped 32 percent in the latest quarter, overtaking sales to logic chip makers for the first time.

A Dividend Record and a Buyback Bonanza

Shareholders are reaping the rewards. On May 5, ASML will pay a final dividend of €2.70 per share. Combined with interim dividends already distributed, the total payout for fiscal 2025 comes to €7.50 per share — a 17 percent increase from the prior year. The ex-dividend date on Euronext is April 24.

The company is also plowing money into share buybacks. In the first quarter alone, it repurchased €1.1 billion worth of stock. The broader program, running through 2028, has a total envelope of €12 billion. Cumulatively, ASML has returned roughly €45 billion to shareholders since it began its capital return strategy.

The Clock Is Ticking

The MATCH Act still needs to pass the full House and the Senate before it becomes law. That gives ASML and its Dutch backers some breathing room — but only 150 days of it. Until then, the company’s record order book from South Korea and its generous capital returns are providing a powerful counterweight to the Washington storm.