ASML Scales Fresh High as Dutch Pushback and US-China Diplomacy Converge

ASML hits new high after Netherlands formally objects to US chip rules, with hopes of eased restrictions as Trump and Xi meet. Strong Q1 revenue of €8.8B and bullish analyst outlook fuel rally.

The Dutch government’s decision to formally oppose Washington’s latest chip-export clampdown has thrown a geopolitical wildcard into ASML’s already buoyant outlook. On 14 May, trade minister Sjoerd Sjoerdsma lodged an official objection, warning that the proposed US laws would undermine the competitive position of Dutch technology champions and disrupt established supply chains. The timing could hardly be more telling: just as The Hague pushes back, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have begun a two-day summit in Beijing, raising hopes among investors that export restrictions may be loosened.

That diplomatic backdrop has added fuel to a stock already on a tear. ASML shares closed at €1,363.60 on Thursday, a new 52-week high that brings the year-to-date gain to nearly 38%. Over the past twelve months, the value of the equity has more than doubled. The market’s confidence is underpinned by a solid operational performance: first-quarter 2026 revenue came in at €8.8 billion, with net profit of €2.8 billion and a gross margin of 53% — at the upper end of the company’s own guidance.

Bank of America analyst Didier Scemama sees the potential for ASML to lift its full-year forecasts if the US indeed eases restrictions. China remains an indispensable market for the lithography systems that ASML dominates. Vivek Arya, also at Bank of America, has raised his 2026 global semiconductor market forecast to $1.3 trillion, driven by relentless investment in AI infrastructure.

The ripple effects are visible across the industry. TSMC, a key buyer of ASML’s expensive EUV machines, is planning to build nine new factories this year alone. Applied Materials has reported record revenues and anticipates strong growth in its equipment business. Wall Street is squarely aligned with the bullish narrative: 22 analysts currently assign ASML a “Strong Buy” rating, with a median price target of $1,694.78.

For the full year 2026, management stands by its revenue forecast of between €36 billion and €40 billion, with gross margin in a range of 51% to 53%. The second-quarter revenue target sits at €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion. Meanwhile, the company has been actively supporting its share price: during the first quarter it repurchased approximately €1.1 billion of its own stock as part of a buyback programme spanning 2026 to 2028.

The diplomatic interplay adds a layer of uncertainty that CFO Roger Dassen is likely to address when he appears at the JP Morgan Global TMC Conference in Boston on 18–19 May, followed by the JPM TMT Conference in London on 21 May. With the Dutch government taking a stand just as the US and China sit down to talk, ASML finds itself at the intersection of trade policy and technological supremacy — and so far, the market likes what it sees.