ASML’s Toll Road Widens: How Diplomacy and Micron’s Results Paved the Way for a Recovery

ASML jumps as Micron's strong AI report and Dutch lobbying against US export curbs ease fears; analysts raise targets citing robust order backlog and EUV monopoly.

ASML shares jumped 4.4% on Thursday, recouping some of the losses that had built up over the previous week as two catalysts converged. A strong quarterly report from Micron Technology signaled robust AI-driven hardware demand, while news broke that Dutch trade officials had been actively lobbying in Washington to defuse the most aggressive export-control proposals. The stock closed the session at roughly $1,841, clawing back ground after a 5.5% weekly slide had dragged it to €1,569.60.

The earlier sell-off had been triggered by the MATCH Act, a bipartisan US bill that would ban the sale of DUV immersion lithography equipment to China. That market accounts for about a fifth of ASML’s revenue, and CFO Roger Dassen had already cautioned that new restrictions could push revenue toward the lower end of the company’s 2026 guidance range. The risk of an abrupt, extraterritorial clampdown unnerved investors, even as ASML denied any wrongdoing following rumours of export-rule violations.

Enter the Dutch government. Trade Minister Sjoerd Sjoerdsma met US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and members of Congress this week to argue against the broad, unilateral curbs. The Netherlands also formally joined the US-led “Pax Silica” alliance, a framework aimed at securing AI hardware supply chains. Analysts interpreted the high-level lobbying as a sign that a sudden, uncoordinated cut-off to Chinese customers is becoming less likely.

Beneath the diplomatic noise, ASML’s core business narrative is strengthening. The company lifted its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to between €36 billion and €40 billion, with gross margins of up to 53%. CEO Christophe Fouquet pointed to a surge in AI-infrastructure orders, while Dassen confirmed plans to deliver 60 EUV systems this year and 80 by 2027. The order backlog stands at a colossal €38.8 billion.

That order book is underpinned by ASML’s monopoly on extreme-ultraviolet lithography. No other manufacturer can produce the machines required to etch the most advanced chips. Whether Nvidia, AMD, or in-house teams at Google and Amazon win the AI race, the physical wafers must pass through an ASML tool. The company’s role as a “toll station” for the semiconductor industry remains unchallenged.

Wall Street has taken notice. Bank of America lifted its price target to $2,345, and Wells Fargo set a new target of $2,200, both citing high visibility in the order pipeline. Across the Atlantic, UBS and Deutsche Bank see the stock in a range of €1,600 to €1,700. The upgrades reflect a growing conviction that long-term demand will overwhelm near-term geopolitical headwinds.

Investors now have two key dates on their calendars. In July, ASML representatives will join a Dutch trade delegation to China, a trip that will test the resilience of business ties under political pressure. Shortly after, second-quarter results will be released, with particular attention on order intake from leading foundries and progress on the installation of High-NA EUV systems — the next-generation technology that secures ASML’s technological edge through the second half of the decade.

Despite the recent volatility, the technical picture remains supportive. The stock is trading well above its 50-day moving average and has gained nearly 59% year-to-date. Management has reaffirmed its 2030 revenue target of €60 billion. Short-term export-control fears may cause the occasional pothole, but the traffic on ASML’s toll road is only just starting to build.