ASML’s Road to 73 Billion: Analysts Reset Targets as Q2 Looms

ASML shares near 52-week high ahead of July 15 Q2 earnings; analysts target up to €1,921 amid AI demand, high-NA EUV ramp, and China exposure risks.

ASML has been on a tear, with shares more than doubling over the past year and vaulting 63% higher as the chip-equipment giant rode a wave of analyst upgrades and booming artificial-intelligence demand. Yet the stock closed Friday at €1,614.80, just a hair below its 52-week high of €1,644, and investors are now waiting for a defining moment: the second-quarter earnings report due on July 15. The results will test whether the fundamentals can keep pace with the euphoria.

The run-up has been fueled by a chorus of bullish calls from Wall Street. JPMorgan lifted its price target to €1,900 from €1,515, arguing that ASML’s communication has turned “clearly more positive” and that the company can push annual output of EUV lithography machines beyond the previously assumed ceiling of 90 units without building new cleanrooms. Morgan Stanley raised its target to €1,660, while Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy rating with a €1,770 target. But the most ambitious forecast came from Bank of America, which set a target of €1,921 based on a 27-times EV/EBITDA multiple on 2028 estimates. After meeting with investor-relations chief Jim Kavanagh, BofA analyst Didier Scemama sketched a scenario where revenue reaches €73 billion by 2030—well above ASML’s own upper limit of €60 billion—with gross margins above 60%, an EBIT margin of 50%, and earnings per share exceeding €90.

The nearer-term picture is already solid. In the first quarter of 2026, ASML reported revenue of €8.8 billion and a gross margin of 53%, and it raised its full-year guidance to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion. For the second quarter, management is targeting median revenue of €8.7 billion and a gross margin of around 51%. The full-year view implies growth of 22% from 2025, to as much as €40 billion. BofA, for its part, has bumped up its EUV delivery forecast for 2026 to 64 units from 61, with three extra machines going to memory maker SK Hynix, and looks for 81 EUV units and €47 billion in revenue in 2027—6% above consensus.

Beyond the quarterly numbers, the industry is watching the ramp-up of ASML’s next-generation high-NA EUV tools, which cost roughly $400 million apiece. The first commercial chips from these machines are expected to roll out in the next few months. ASML has already shipped the first system of its new EXE:5200 series to SK Hynix, and customers have collectively processed more than 300,000 wafers on high-NA equipment. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the dominant chipmaker, is biding its time, but rivals such as Intel, Samsung, and SK Hynix are pushing ahead aggressively.

One persistent overhang is the company’s exposure to China. The region’s share of ASML’s revenue has fallen to 33% from 41% in recent quarters, and management sees a gradual normalization toward 20% over the long term. The political backdrop grew more uncertain after the proposed MATCH Act in the U.S., which would restrict China’s access to additional chip-making tools, advanced in Congress. Jefferies, the only major bank not to upgrade ASML, kept its hold rating, citing elevated valuations and geopolitical risks around the China business.

ASML has also been returning cash to shareholders aggressively. During the first quarter, it bought back about €1.1 billion of its own shares. The planned dividend for 2025 is set to rise 17% to €7.50 per share. The buyback program and rising payout underscore the confidence management has in the company’s cash generation, even as it invests in next-generation technology.

Technically, the stock sits 22% above its 50-day moving average and nearly 50% above its 200-day average, with a relative strength index of 67.9—close to overbought territory but not yet flashing a warning. Since hitting a 52-week low in August 2025, the share price has more than tripled. The gap to the all-time high of €1,644 is barely 2%. A strong quarterly report on July 15 could provide the final push to break decisively into record territory.