ASML's Record Run: Intel's Process Leap Ignites EUV Demand While Washington Tightens the Screw on China

ASML shares surge to €1,682 on Intel's 18A-P milestone, but US MATCH Act threatens China DUV sales and services. Strong EUV demand offsets risks.

ASML Holdings NV presents a stark study in contrasts this week. Its shares hit a fresh 52-week high of €1,682 on Wednesday after Intel announced a key advance at a chip industry symposium, yet the Dutch lithography giant is simultaneously bracing for a potential regulatory punch from Washington that could hobble its lucrative China business.

At the VLSI Symposium in Honolulu, Intel revealed that its 18A-P process node has entered risk series production, a milestone typically heralding commercial ramp six to twelve months down the line. For ASML, the world’s sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, that means a fresh wave of orders as Intel attempts to reclaim ground in the foundry space. The shares closed Wednesday at €1,630.60, just a fraction below the record, with year-to-date gains exceeding 70% from the intraday high and roughly 65% from the close. Over twelve months, the advance stands at around 154%.

But that premium is coming under scrutiny as US lawmakers push through the MATCH Act, a piece of legislation designed to close the remaining loopholes in chip export controls. The bill would ban sales of older DUV lithography tools to China and, more damagingly, end maintenance services for machines already installed there. China generated a third of ASML’s total revenue last year, a figure that slid to 19% in the first quarter of 2026. Management had already penciled in a further decline to around one-fifth for the full year; a stringent MATCH Act could push that number lower still.

Yet the company’s financial health remains robust. First-quarter revenue came in at €8.8 billion and net profit at €2.8 billion. ASML raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of €36-40 billion, implying growth of roughly 16% from 2025, compared with an earlier forecast of about 12%. The revision is driven by a surge in orders for high-margin EUV tools from customers in Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States, all racing to build AI-chip infrastructure. CEO Christophe Fouquet has described demand as ‘enormous,’ specifically citing Elon Musk’s planned Terafab megafactory in Austin, Texas, a $55 billion project funded largely by SpaceX. The gross margin is expected to land between 51% and 53% this year.

The shift in sales mix is central to the strategy: lost DUV business from China is being more than compensated by EUV equipment for the likes of TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. The company now commands a market capitalization of approximately $738 billion, lifting its price-to-earnings ratio to around 60 — a premium that reflects its iron grip on EUV technology.

Meanwhile, ASML is propping up its own share price through a hefty buyback program. In the second week of June alone, the company was spending nearly €16 million per day on its own stock. Analysts remain broadly constructive: Goldman Sachs has a clear buy recommendation, Jefferies advises holding, and Morningstar cautions that the current valuation already prices in the long-term AI boom. Bullish strategists see potential for more than 110 shipments of Low-NA EUV systems annually, well above current market estimates.

The next major catalyst for the stock will be ASML’s half-year report, traditionally published in July. Investors will be watching to see whether the elevated order backlog from the AI cycle has already translated into reported backlog. The big unknown remains Washington’s legislative timetable: if the MATCH Act passes in a tougher form than expected, the stock could face a sharp reality check. For now, the twin engines of Intel’s process-node push and AI infrastructure spending are keeping the rally aloft, but the geopolitical headwinds are not going to disappear.