ASML's Rally Stirs Split Speculation, but Institutional Land Grab and Analyst Targets Tell the Real Story

Despite no official split plan, ASML sees major hedge fund and analyst bullishness on EUV monopoly and strong earnings growth.

When KLA Corporation announced a ten-for-one stock split in May and Booking Holdings executed a 25-for-one split shortly before, the market began scanning for the next high-priced name to follow suit. ASML, trading at roughly €1,378, naturally surfaced as a candidate — its shares have surged more than 100% over the past year and nearly 43% since January. But while retail investors debate whether the Dutch lithography giant will reduce its per-share price, the real action is unfolding quietly among institutions and analysts, whose conviction rests on fundamentals far removed from optics.

The last time ASML split its stock was April 2000, a three-for-one move over 25 years ago. The case for doing so again is straightforward: lower entry points for retail buyers, cheaper options, and a short-term sentiment boost. Yet management has given no hint — no board resolution, no regulatory filing, no indirect signal. The company instead channels capital returns through a €12 billion buyback program running through 2028, having repurchased €1.1 billion in shares during the first quarter alone. For a foreign issuer with a euro-denominated dividend and buyback, stock splits are far from automatic.

Meanwhile, major investors are voting with their wallets. Coatue Management, the hedge fund run by billionaire Philippe Laffont, scooped up nearly 500,000 additional ASML shares. FMR LLC increased its position by roughly 1.6 million shares. The rationale is clear: ASML holds an uncontested monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, the only machines capable of fabricating the advanced chips powering AI data centers. That bottleneck keeps order books full for years, regardless of the stock's nominal price.

Analysts are similarly bullish. UBS named ASML its top pick in the European semiconductor space, lifting its price target from €1,600 to €1,900 — a level implying roughly 35% upside from the current €1,414. Goldman Sachs followed with an increase to €1,600. Out of 39 analysts covering the stock, 38 recommend buying, and only one rates it a sell. The average target stands at €1,483, with the highest individual call matching UBS's €1,900.

The fundamental firepower behind these forecasts is solid. ASML reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of €8.8 billion and net income of €2.8 billion, with earnings per share of €7.15. Gross margin hit 53%. Management subsequently raised full-year guidance to revenue between €36 billion and €40 billion, maintaining gross margins of 51% to 53%. By 2030, the company targets sales of €44 billion to €60 billion — roughly 60% above 2025 levels. All this despite export restrictions and geopolitical headwinds already baked into the outlook.

Technology transitions further entrench ASML's position. With Marco Pieters taking over as chief technology officer, the company is preparing for the next EUV generation — high-NA — whose first production data are expected soon. Geographically, Taiwan remains the single most important market, contributing €8.3 billion in annual revenue, or more than a quarter of total sales. Local chipmakers are aggressively expanding capacity to address the global shortage of high-performance semiconductors, guaranteeing sustained demand for ASML's gear.

In the end, the split debate is a sideshow. Whether ASML ever divides its shares or not, the combination of a monopoly product, institutional accumulation, rising analyst targets, and a €12 billion buyback creates a narrative far weightier than any cosmetic adjustment. The stock's 52-week high of €1,420.80, set on May 25, may soon look like a floor rather than a ceiling.