ASML’s CEO Puts on a Brave Face in LA While Options Traders Brace for a Bump

ASML chief joins European tech giants urging EU to simplify AI rules, as record Q1 sales of €8.8B and raised guidance contrast with options market caution and export control risks.

Christophe Fouquet is playing a two-front war. On one side, he’s projecting unshakeable confidence at the Milken Conference in Los Angeles, dismissing fears of Chinese copycats and delivery delays. On the other, he’s signed a public letter demanding Brussels slash red tape on artificial intelligence—a sign that Europe’s most valuable tech company sees political headwinds as real as any competitive threat.

The ASML chief joined forces with the heads of Airbus, SAP, and four other European technology heavyweights this week. Their joint appeal to Ursula von der Leyen is blunt: Europe’s AI rules need a radical simplification, or the continent risks falling irreversibly behind. The timing is no accident. The European Union resumes talks on amending its AI Act this month, and on May 27 the Commission is set to unveil a fresh package on technological sovereignty, including long-debated plans to bolster the chip industry.

Fouquet’s public push for lighter regulation comes as the company’s financial engine hums. ASML reported first-quarter net sales of €8.8 billion, net profit of €2.8 billion, and a gross margin of 53 percent. The order books are bulging, fueled by insatiable demand for the lithography systems that underpin artificial intelligence infrastructure. The company has raised its full-year revenue forecast to between €36 billion and €40 billion, a figure that already factors in the potential drag from export controls.

Yet beneath the bravado, the options market is flashing caution. More than 10,600 put contracts changed hands recently—nearly double the usual volume—with traders piling into May and June contracts struck at $1,400. The skepticism stems from a softer outlook for the current quarter, where gross margins are expected to slip to around 52 percent and system sales are likely to dip temporarily. Export restrictions continue to cast a shadow over the China business.

The share price reflects this tension. After a volatile week, ASML stock settled at €1,234, still up roughly 25 percent year-to-date. That’s a far cry from the 31 percent gain notched earlier this month when the stock hit a record €1,294.80 on the back of the upgraded guidance. The gap to the 50-day moving average has narrowed to a healthy 3 percent, suggesting the rally isn’t overheated.

Fouquet, for his part, insists the moat around ASML’s technology is as deep as ever. He points out that generating extreme ultraviolet light alone consumed two decades of development, and that the first EUV image was produced 30 years before the first commercial tool shipped. Reports of Chinese engineers reverse-engineering ASML gear don’t rattle him. “A complete restart for a competitor is an enormous challenge,” he told the Milken audience. As for delays in rolling out the next-generation High-NA EUV machines, he shrugs them off. These systems are designed for the next 10 to 20 years; a few months of adaptation time is irrelevant.

Shareholders are enjoying the ride. The annual general meeting in April approved a final dividend of €2.70 per share, bringing the total payout for the past year to €7.50. An ongoing share buyback program is providing additional support. The board also approved personnel changes in the supervisory and management boards.

The immediate focus now shifts to two milestones. On May 27, the EU’s technology sovereignty package will land, potentially providing fresh sector-wide catalysts. After that, investors will train their eyes on the second quarter, where ASML expects revenue of up to €9 billion and a gross margin around 52 percent. The big question is whether the company can maintain its blistering pace of deliveries without the margin hiccup turning into something more serious.