ASML’s €8.8 Billion Quarter Lifts Guidance as South Korea Surges Past China and a New CTO Takes the Helm

ASML shareholders see €2.70 final dividend and leadership changes as Q1 beats estimates, revenue guidance raised to €36-40B, and South Korea overtakes China as top market.

ASML shareholders are marking two milestones today: the ex-dividend date for a €2.70 final payout and the formal start of a revamped leadership team following the annual general meeting. The Dutch lithography giant’s stock, hovering around €1,212, has shed roughly 2 percent in early trading—a move partly explained by the dividend adjustment—but the underlying business tells a far more buoyant story.

A 17% Dividend Hike and a €12 Billion Buyback Engine

The AGM on April 22 approved a final dividend of €2.70 per share, payable on May 5. Combined with three interim dividends of €1.60 each distributed over the past year, the total payout for fiscal 2025 reaches €7.50 per share—a 17 percent increase from the prior year.

That cash return sits atop a broader capital-return program. ASML repurchased roughly 0.9 million of its own shares in the first quarter of 2026 for €1.1 billion. The buyback plan, which runs through 2028, has a total authorized volume of €12 billion. Cumulatively, the company has now returned around €45 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks since the program’s inception.

South Korea Overtakes China as EUV Dominates the Mix

The geographic shift in ASML’s revenue mix is striking. South Korea became the single largest market in the first quarter, accounting for 45 percent of system sales—up from 22 percent in the prior quarter. Memory manufacturers there are racing to expand capacity, driven by the chip shortages that the AI boom has exacerbated.

China, by contrast, saw its share tumble from 36 percent to 19 percent, weighed down by tightening export controls. Management has baked that uncertainty into its full-year guidance.

The product mix also tilted decisively toward higher-value machinery. Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems represented 66 percent of system sales, compared with 48 percent in the previous quarter.

Q1 Beats Estimates, Full-Year Outlook Raised

First-quarter revenue came in at €8.8 billion, ahead of the €8.5 billion consensus, while net profit of €2.8 billion comfortably exceeded the €2.5 billion analysts had penciled in. The installed base business—services and field upgrades—contributed €2.5 billion, slightly above internal forecasts.

ASML responded by lifting its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion, up from the earlier €34 billion to €39 billion. For the second quarter, the company expects sales between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion, though the gross margin is seen easing to 51–52 percent from 53 percent in Q1.

A New CTO and a China Hiring Push

The AGM also ushered in a series of leadership changes. Marco Pieters takes over as chief technology officer for a four-year term, a role central to maintaining ASML’s edge in lithography. CFO Roger Dassen was reappointed for another four years, while COO Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury received a two-year mandate. On the supervisory board, Benjamin Loh—former CEO of ASM International—joins, replacing Alexander Everke, who stepped down after his term expired.

Despite the complex trade environment, ASML is expanding its presence in China. Roughly 300 new employees are expected to be hired there over the course of the year, primarily in customer service, technical support, and installation.

AI Infrastructure Spending Fuels a Structural Tailwind

The demand surge behind these numbers is structural. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google together plan to invest more than $600 billion in AI infrastructure this year, forcing chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel to add capacity—and those companies, in turn, need ASML’s machines. CEO Christophe Fouquet put it bluntly: “Demand for chips exceeds supply.”

On the supply side, ASML is ramping up. The CFO confirmed that the company can deliver around 60 of its high-NA EUV machines in 2026—25 percent more than in 2025—and aims to increase capacity to 80 units by 2027. Production capacity for certain advanced chip nodes is effectively booked out for the remainder of the year.

A new €1.3 billion semiconductor partnership with Mistral AI underscores the deepening link between lithography and artificial intelligence.

The stock has gained roughly 22 percent since the start of the year and now trades just above its 50-day moving average. Whether the guidance upgrade can propel it toward the February high of €1,295 will depend largely on how consistently the big chip customers execute their investment plans.