ASML’s €38.8 Billion Order Backlog and a Split High-NA Adoption Path: Analyst Lifts Target to €2,350

Susquehanna boosts ASML target to €2,350 amid AI-driven lithography demand; record €38.8B backlog and raised 2026 outlook underpin bullish case.

Susquehanna has dramatically raised its price target on ASML to €2,350 from €1,475, implying nearly 46% upside from current levels. The upgrade, driven by supply-chain checks revealing a sharp uptick in lithography system orders, came on a day when the stock barely budged. Shares slipped 1.23% to €1,608 on Monday, still leaving them within 8% of the June-end record high of €1,748. Over the past twelve months the Dutch equipment maker’s shares have more than doubled, and since January they have gained nearly 64%.

The analyst’s confidence rests on an already bulging order book. ASML began 2026 with a backlog of around €38.8 billion, and delivery lead times stretch to at least a year. A single order from SK Hynix for EUV systems totalling nearly $8 billion underscores the capacity crunch in high?performance memory. The industry’s scramble to keep pace with AI?driven demand has filled ASML’s production slots for the next twelve months, giving management unusual visibility into future revenue. Executives now expect 2026 sales of €36 billion to €40 billion — raised from an earlier range of €34 billion to €39 billion — with a gross margin of 51% to 53%.

The next growth catalyst is the transition to High?NA EUV lithography. ASML is installing the first production?ready EXE:5200B machines, which handle 175 wafers an hour — a 60% productivity jump over the previous generation. Each unit costs between €350 million and €400 million. Customer adoption, however, is unfolding at different speeds. Intel has already taken delivery of early High?NA tools and is deploying them for its 14A process. SK Hynix is integrating the technology into its next?generation DRAM manufacturing. TSMC, the world’s largest chip foundry, has included High?NA in its road map but is delaying broad deployment, citing the high cost per chip. This divergence means ASML faces uneven revenue streams from its flagship product as some clients wait for the economics to improve.

Meanwhile, ASML is scaling up output of its current Low?NA EUV systems. The company plans to ship roughly 60 Low?NA tools this year, a 25% increase from 2025. By 2027, capacity is expected to reach 80 Low?NA and at least 10 High?NA systems annually. Additional tailwind comes from South Korea, where memory manufacturers plan to build four new fabrication plants with a combined investment of more than $500 billion, ensuring ASML will equip those sites well into the next decade.

The stock’s technical picture offers no clear signal of overreach. At €1,608, the shares trade about 11% above the 50?day moving average of €1,449.83, while the Relative Strength Index stands at 53.2 — comfortably in neutral territory. The next major catalyst arrives on July 15, when ASML reports second?quarter results. Investors will focus on how quickly the record backlog converts into recognised revenue and whether the pace of execution justifies the current valuation. Management is also expected to provide an update on the multi?billion?euro share buyback programme and address demand trends outside the dominant AI segment.

Adding a layer of complexity is the geopolitical environment. The Dutch government participates in international export?control alliances that continue to restrict ASML’s shipments to China. While the Chinese market is not the primary growth driver for the company’s most advanced tools, the policy headwinds inject an element of uncertainty that could temper the otherwise buoyant outlook.