ASML’s €2.2 Billion Factory Bet Pushes EUV Output Toward 80 Machines a Year

ASML’s €38.8B backlog drives €2.2B capex to ramp EUV output, with 2026 revenue target of €40B and strong memory demand from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

The Dutch lithography giant is running out of room to store its orders. ASML’s backlog has swelled to €38.8 billion, and the company is spending heavily to turn that queue into hardware. A €2.2 billion capital expenditure program — 20 percent above last year’s level — will fund new production facilities and infrastructure as ASML races to deliver at least 60 extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) systems in 2026, up from 48 units in the prior year. By 2027, management has set its sights on roughly 80 machines annually.

The bottleneck is structural. Each EUV tool is so complex that manufacturing capacity cannot be ramped overnight. Yet the demand pressure keeps building. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron have all placed multibillion-dollar orders, filling ASML’s order book to levels that guarantee high revenue visibility for quarters to come.

A €40 Billion Revenue Target Takes Shape

ASML’s first-quarter results validated the spending spree. Revenue hit €8.8 billion, with a gross margin of 53 percent — at the upper end of the company’s own forecast. Net income came in at €2.8 billion. Management raised the full-year revenue guidance to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion, up from the earlier €34 billion-to-€39 billion corridor. For the full year, ASML expects gross margins between 51 percent and 53 percent.

The geographic breakdown tells a revealing story. South Korea accounted for 45 percent of quarterly sales, reflecting the enormous appetite for high-bandwidth memory chips that power AI infrastructure. More than 51 percent of shipments went into memory production. Meanwhile, China’s share of ASML’s revenue shrank to 19 percent, a direct consequence of tightening export controls that continue to reshape the company’s end-market exposure.

High-NA EUV: The Next Generation Hangs in the Balance

Alongside the volume ramp, ASML is pushing forward with its next-generation High-NA EUV systems, each priced at roughly $400 million. Memory manufacturers have already integrated these tools into their roadmaps. But TSMC is taking a more cautious approach, evaluating whether existing EUV platforms can be stretched through multi-patterning techniques — a move that could delay a broad High-NA rollout until 2029.

Analysts see this as a near-term product-mix issue rather than a structural threat. The secular demand for lithography capacity remains so intense that even a slower High-NA adoption curve would not derail ASML’s overall growth trajectory.

Capital Returns and Dividend Calendar

ASML is matching its investment push with generous shareholder rewards. The company executed €1.1 billion in share buybacks during the first quarter, part of a €12 billion repurchase program running from 2026 through 2028. Shareholders will receive a final dividend of €2.70 per share on May 5, bringing the total 2025 dividend to €7.50. The stock’s recent dip to around €1,220 partly reflects the ex-dividend date of April 27.

On a 12-month basis, ASML’s share price has more than doubled. The key risk hanging over the valuation is not operational — it is political. How far Washington pushes its export restrictions will likely influence the stock’s multiple more than any quarterly earnings beat in the months ahead.