ASML’s €1,800 Share Price Target Stands Despite TSMC’s High-NA Snub and a New US Export Hammer

ASML navigates TSMC's High-NA EUV delay until 2029 and the MATCH Act's export restrictions, but strong demand and analyst optimism keep stock climbing.

The world’s most important chip-equipment maker is navigating a peculiar moment. Two clouds hang over ASML simultaneously — one from its biggest customer, another from Washington — yet the stock has climbed more than a fifth since January and analysts remain unanimously bullish. The disconnect between headline risk and underlying demand has rarely been starker.

TSMC Plays the Waiting Game

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. has decided it does not need ASML’s cutting-edge High-NA EUV machines for mass production until 2029. Each tool costs north of €350 million, and TSMC is simply choosing to save its money. The decision is awkward for ASML, which has built its 2030 revenue target of up to €60 billion partly around the technology’s adoption beginning in 2027 and 2028.

But TSMC stands alone in its caution. Intel is already using High-NA EUV to develop its 14A process node. Samsung took delivery of its first machine late last year and plans to install a second in the first half of 2026. Bernstein analysts are unfazed by TSMC’s delay, noting the chip giant had signaled a year ago that it would skip High-NA for its A14 node. The baseline assumption, Bernstein argues, was always an entry at A10 in 2030. In fact, the research house calls a slower High-NA adoption “probably neutral or even positive” for ASML. UBS and Citi see the technology accounting for 15 to 20 percent of lithography revenue by the end of the decade.

The MATCH Act Targets More Than New Machines

While TSMC’s timeline is a commercial inconvenience, the MATCH Act is a regulatory sledgehammer. A bipartisan group of US House representatives has advanced legislation that would block ASML from selling even older DUV machines to China — equipment Chinese chipmakers can still legally buy today.

The bill, passed by the House Foreign Affairs Committee, gives the Netherlands and Japan 150 days to align their export rules with US standards. If talks fail, Washington can act unilaterally by expanding the Foreign Direct Product Rule to cover machines built in Veldhoven. The most damaging provision is easily overlooked: the law would also ban maintenance and upgrades on machines already installed in China. Service contracts are a high-margin, recurring revenue stream for ASML, and losing them would be a permanent hit.

China’s share of ASML’s system revenue has already fallen sharply — from 36 percent in the December quarter to 19 percent in the first three months of 2026. Analysts at Quilter Cheviot estimate the affected DUV models represent roughly 10 to 15 percent of total revenue, with China accounting for about half of that. That pencils out to a potential revenue impact of around 5 percent, which the analysts expect to fade over time.

A Backlog That Tells a Different Story

The order book offers a powerful counter-narrative. ASML is building at least 60 standard EUV systems this year — 36 percent more than its five-year average — and management is targeting 80 units in 2027. The backlog sits at €38.8 billion. SK Hynix and Samsung alone placed EUV orders worth roughly $8 billion each in the past month. Samsung also ordered 50 older-generation machines.

For 2026, ASML forecasts revenue between €36 billion and €40 billion with a gross margin of 51 to 53 percent. CEO Christophe Fouquet has stressed that the range already accounts for “potential outcomes of ongoing discussions regarding export controls.” The company is not waiting for clarity; it is building a buffer into its guidance.

Record Payouts and a €12 Billion Buyback

Amid the uncertainty, ASML is returning cash to shareholders at a record pace. On May 5, the company will pay a final dividend of €2.70 per share. Combined with interim dividends already distributed, the total payout for fiscal 2025 comes to €7.50 per share — a 17 percent increase year-on-year. The ex-dividend date on Euronext is April 24.

A €12 billion share buyback program running from 2026 through 2028 is also underway. In the first quarter alone, ASML repurchased €1.1 billion worth of stock. Cumulatively, the company has returned roughly €45 billion to shareholders since it began its capital return program.

The stock trades around €1,180, up nearly 20 percent year-to-date. All eight analysts tracked by TipRanks rate it a buy, with an average price target of $1,757. The MATCH Act still needs to clear the full House and Senate before it becomes law. Until then, the export risk is real — but so is the order book.