ASML’s €1,240 Stock Nears a Record as a €12 Billion Buyback and a 17% Dividend Hike Compete for Investor Attention

ASML approves record €7.50 dividend and €12B buyback, raises 2026 revenue forecast to €40B on AI demand, but Q2 outlook misses estimates amid China sales drop and US political pressure.

ASML shareholders are entering a pivotal week where a record cash payout, a massive share repurchase plan, and a bullish revenue upgrade must coexist with a cautious second-quarter outlook and mounting political risk in Washington. The Dutch lithography giant’s stock closed at €1,240.80 on Friday, just 4% shy of its 52-week high of €1,295, having gained roughly 25% since the start of the year.

Dividend Payouts and Buybacks Take Center Stage

The annual general meeting on April 22 formally approved a final dividend of €2.70 per share, bringing the total distribution for the 2025 fiscal year to €7.50 — a 17% increase from the prior year. The payout ratio sits at approximately 23%, meaning ASML retains the bulk of its earnings for reinvestment while still rewarding shareholders handsomely.

For investors holding shares on Euronext, the ex-dividend date passed on Friday, April 24. Those with Nasdaq-listed securities will see the stock trade ex-dividend on Monday, April 27, with the record date falling on the same day. The actual cash payment is scheduled for May 5.

Alongside the dividend, ASML is executing an aggressive buyback program. The company has authorized repurchases of up to €12 billion in shares through 2028, with €1.1 billion already spent in the first quarter of 2026 alone. A separate authorization allows the company to buy back up to 10% of outstanding shares through October 2027.

AI Demand Fills the China Gap

The strength of the order book is undeniable, but the second-quarter outlook revealed cracks beneath the surface. Management guided for revenue between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion in the current quarter, below analyst expectations. Gross margin is expected to come in at a maximum of 52%, also slightly weaker than hoped.

One major factor is the shrinking contribution from China. At the end of last year, the country accounted for 36% of system sales. That figure dropped to 19% in the first quarter. Political pressure from the US is adding to the uncertainty. The bipartisan “MATCH Act” currently making its way through Congress aims to prohibit ASML from selling older DUV machines to Chinese chipmakers entirely.

Yet the demand from Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States is more than filling the void. Driven by the buildout of AI infrastructure at customers like TSMC and Intel, ASML has raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to as much as €40 billion. The most advanced EUV lithography systems now dominate the business, accounting for two-thirds of sales.

A Leaner Structure and Uneven High-NA Adoption

Internally, ASML is streamlining its operations. The company is reducing management layers to speed up decision-making in an increasingly complex market environment. While no official details have been released, the move is seen as a response to uneven demand for the latest High-NA EUV systems. These machines cost over €350 million each, and while Intel and Samsung have expressed interest, TSMC is sticking with older EUV tools for now, causing some customers to hesitate.

In China, ASML remains committed to the market. Shen Bo, president of ASML China, confirmed a strong global order book and plans to hire roughly 300 new employees in the country this year. China is expected to contribute about 20% of total revenue in 2026. Delivery times remain a bottleneck, ranging from several months to over two years depending on the system, which limits short-term revenue recognition but underscores the sustained demand.

What’s Next for Investors

The next major catalyst arrives on July 18, when ASML reports second-quarter results. Management will then disclose how many of the 60 planned Low-NA EUV systems for 2026 have already been shipped. Until then, the market will focus on the pace of the buyback program and the progress of the MATCH Act through the US legislative process.

For now, ASML’s stock sits in striking distance of its record high, supported by a triple dose of shareholder returns, AI-driven demand, and a revenue forecast that keeps the bull case intact — even as geopolitical headwinds and a cautious near-term outlook temper the euphoria.