ASML Presses Ahead with €16M Daily Buybacks as High-NA EUV Adoption Splits Chip Giants

ASML continues aggressive share buyback, spending ~€16M daily, as High-NA EUV lithography splits customer base; Q1 revenue €8.8B, 2026 outlook €36-40B.

ASML is running its share buyback program like a finely tuned lithography machine — and the numbers are relentless. In the trading week from May 18 to May 22, the Dutch chip equipment giant snapped up between 11,400 and 12,600 of its own shares each day, at prices ranging from €1,255 to €1,393 apiece. That works out to roughly €15.9 million in daily outlays, a pace the company has maintained with striking consistency. The week prior, ASML also spent about €16 million per day on share repurchases, buying roughly 12,000 shares daily.

The buyback program, launched in January 2026, runs through 2028 and has already consumed nearly €1.1 billion in the first quarter alone. But the steady stream of capital returns is only half the story. ASML is simultaneously navigating a technology inflection point that carries both promise and pricing friction.

A Tight Market, an Uncertain Customer Calculus

CEO Christophe Fouquet has described the semiconductor landscape as “tight,” with capacity constraints expected to persist as tech giants pour hundreds of billions into AI-driven data centers. TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel are all racing to expand, and every one of them depends on ASML’s lithography systems. In response, ASML is ramping production and pushing efficiencies, with a particular focus on its next-generation lithography tool: High-NA EUV.

High-NA EUV promises finer chip features critical for advanced logic and memory. Yet the technology carries a staggering price tag — up to roughly $400 million per system. That cost is splitting the customer base. TSMC appears to see High-NA as too expensive for now, while Intel, Samsung, and SK Hynix are moving ahead with adoption plans. For ASML, it’s a mixed signal: the technology roadmap is intact, but broad deployment hinges on whether the per-chip economics justify the upfront premium. The first chips produced using High-NA EUV are expected in the coming months, with product data for both logic and memory due later this year. Those results will be the first real-world test of the cost-benefit equation.

Guidance Reflects a Wide Range of Outcomes

ASML’s 2026 revenue forecast falls between €36 billion and €40 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 53%. The wide band is intentional, designed to absorb potential impacts from export controls that remain under political negotiation. In the first quarter, the company delivered €8.8 billion in revenue, a gross margin of 53.0%, and net profit of €2.8 billion. Memory chips — driven by Samsung and SK Hynix’s build-out — accounted for 51% of revenue.

For the current quarter, ASML sees revenue of €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion with a gross margin of 51% to 52%. The bullish backdrop is undisputed: AI infrastructure demand is boosting orders for new machines, upgrades, and service revenue. But as Fouquet noted, the tight market may last longer than some expect.

Stock Soars, but High Bar Remains

The market has already priced in substantial optimism. ASML shares closed at €1,375.60 on the Wednesday of the buyback week, a gain of 39.19% year-to-date and 107.79% over the past twelve months. The stock sits just below its 52-week high of €1,420.80 and well above its long-term moving average. European tech stocks opened firmer that day, with ASML and Infineon helping lift the index, while Micron Technology in the U.S. crossed the $1 trillion market capitalization threshold.

Adding to the shareholder-friendly tone, ASML has also raised its dividend. For fiscal 2025, the company plans to pay €7.50 per share, a 17% increase. A final dividend of €2.70 has been proposed to the annual general meeting, following three interim payouts of €1.60 each.

The combination of aggressive buybacks, a rising dividend, and multi-billion-euro capital investment underscores ASML’s willingness to finance its own expansion — and reward shareholders — without skipping a beat. The open question is whether High-NA EUV will become the high-volume workhorse that justifies its cost, or remain a niche tool for the most advanced chips. The first production runs in the months ahead will offer a crucial answer.