ASML Insiders Take Profits, but the €38.8 Billion Backlog Keeps the Narrative Bullish

Midwest Trust and General American trim ASML holdings; analysts eye order book composition and memory chip EUV adoption as key to future growth.

Some of ASML’s largest institutional holders are trimming their positions just days before the Dutch lithography giant reports second-quarter earnings on July 15. Midwest Trust Co. reduced its stake by 11.6%, selling 2,751 shares and leaving it with roughly 20,948 ASML shares valued at $27.67 million at the time of the filing. General American Investors Co. Inc. also pared back, offloading 7,000 shares — an 11.3% cut — while still keeping ASML as its fifth-largest portfolio holding at 55,000 shares.

The selling follows a ferocious rally. ASML stock has gained 59.28% since the start of 2026 and 127.88% over the past twelve months. Against that backdrop, the moves look less like a vote of no confidence and more like routine profit-taking or portfolio rebalancing ahead of what could be a volatile summer. The company itself has been buying back shares, acquiring up to 10,000 of its own shares daily between June 29 and July 3 at weighted average prices ranging from €1,587.15 to €1,696.17.

The central question for investors on Wednesday is not about quarterly revenue — ASML has already guided for sales between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion — but about the composition of its order book. The backlog currently stands at €38.8 billion, and the market wants to see whether memory-chip manufacturers are accelerating their adoption of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems. That shift is the single most concrete indicator of how long the current AI-driven chip cycle can sustain its pace.

ASML plans to deliver more than 60 EUV systems in 2026, up from 48 in 2025. Memory makers such as SK Hynix and Samsung are driving the surge, installing Low-NA EUV tools specifically for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM production — the essential building blocks for AI data centers. SK Hynix alone intends to purchase 20 EUV systems over the next two years for its HBM lines. The company’s ability to turn that demand into firm orders will be the key data point when the books open.

Analysts expect second-quarter earnings per share of roughly $7.98 and a gross margin squarely within ASML’s target corridor of 51% to 52%. Those numbers alone would be unremarkable without the context of the order pipeline. The real weight falls on management’s commentary about the path to 2027, when ASML aims to build annual EUV delivery capacity to 80 systems and begin scaling its next-generation High-NA EUV machines, each priced at roughly $380 million.

Despite the recent pullback — the stock closed on Friday at €1,574.20, down 1.39% on the week and 2.51% on the month — the technical picture remains intact. The current price sits about 10% below the 52-week high of €1,748.00 reached on June 30, but that is still well above the 50-day moving average of €1,477.77. The relative strength index of 51.1 signals neutral territory, leaving room for either a breakout or a further consolidation without flashing overbought or oversold conditions.

With a market capitalization of roughly €605 billion and a 30-day annualized volatility of 64.27%, sharp moves around the earnings release are all but guaranteed. The full-year revenue forecast remains at €36 billion to €40 billion. If the backlog confirms a further tilt toward memory-chip orders, it will give analysts ample ammunition for the current 2027 earnings estimate of $49.46 per share — up sharply from an earlier $36.46 — and for the longer view into 2028.