ASML Faces a Geopolitical Tightrope as Intel Dangles a Billion-Euro Order

ASML faces a rare crossroads: a US bill may cut China revenue by 5%, while a potential Apple-Intel deal could generate €4.6B in EUV orders, with India emerging as a new hedge.

The Dutch lithography giant is navigating a rare moment of crosscurrents. On one side, a bipartisan US bill threatens to choke off a chunk of its China business; on the other, a potential blockbuster deal between Apple and Intel could generate new demand worth billions. The two forces, pulling in opposite directions, are reshaping the narrative around ASML's 2026 revenue trajectory.

The so-called MATCH Act, now under discussion in the US House of Representatives, would extend export restrictions to older DUV lithography systems that are still legally sold to Chinese chipmakers today. Analysts at Quilter Cheviot, led by Ben Barringer, estimate the hit could shave roughly five percent off ASML's total sales if the legislation passes. Management has already factored in a gradual decline in China’s contribution, forecasting that the region will account for no more than a fifth of group revenue by 2026.

That possible shortfall may be partly offset by a separate development taking shape across the Pacific. Bank of America calculates that an alliance between Apple and Intel—still in the form of a preliminary $10 billion agreement—could require up to 15 additional EUV systems, worth around €4.6 billion. Intel would use those machines to scale its 18A and 14A process technologies, offering Apple an alternative to its near-total reliance on Taiwan’s TSMC. Nothing has been signed, but the mere prospect is already altering the order calculus for ASML.

The timing is telling. TSMC has pushed back its adoption of the next-generation High-NA EUV machines until at least 2029, opting instead to rely on existing Low-NA tools for its A13 and A14 nodes. That decision softens near-term demand for ASML’s most expensive systems, which carry a price tag of roughly €400 million each. Yet Intel, along with Samsung and other foundry players, is stepping in to fill the gap. ASML plans to ship at least 60 Low-NA EUV systems in 2026 and increase that number to 80 by 2027.

Diversification is also taking a geographic turn. A new memorandum of understanding with Tata Electronics will see ASML provide equipment for India’s first commercial 300-millimeter semiconductor fab in Gujarat’s Dholera region. The signing ceremony in the Netherlands was attended by both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Dutch counterpart Rob Jetten, underscoring the political heft behind the project. India is dangling billions in subsidies to build its own chip ecosystem, and Tata alone is committing a double-digit billion sum. For ASML, the subcontinent offers a welcome hedge against overconcentration in established Asian markets.

The growing regulatory pressure has pushed the company’s leadership onto the political stage. CEO Christophe Fouquet joined the heads of Airbus, SAP, and Siemens in a newspaper op-ed calling for a radical shake-up of European industrial policy. After a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the group demanded less red tape, more flexible merger rules, and targeted state support for strategic sectors.

On the financial front, ASML’s outlook remains robust despite the noise. Management continues to target 2026 net sales of €36 billion to €40 billion, with a gross margin between 51 and 53 percent. The order book stood at €38.8 billion at the start of the year. Goldman Sachs recently lifted its price target to €1,600, while UBS and Citi see the stock in a €1,600–€1,700 range. Yet the share price has been softer: at €1,265, it fell two percent on Monday and sits roughly five percent below the 52-week high set in mid-May. Year-to-date, the stock has still gained 28 percent, and over the past twelve months it has nearly doubled.

Internally, cost control remains a priority. The company is eliminating about 1,700 management positions and has reached a social plan with unions. Meanwhile, the share buyback programme churns on—ASML repurchased €84 million worth of its own stock in mid-April alone.

The next major catalysts for the stock are binary: the fate of the MATCH Act in Washington and the formalisation of the Apple-Intel agreement. The moment either becomes concrete, the impact will show up directly in ASML’s order intake.