ASML Defies Chip Selloff on Split Speculation and South Korean Mega-Investment

ASML shares jump nearly 5% amid stock split rumors and a massive South Korean semiconductor pledge, while High-NA EUV progress and a €45B order book fuel optimism despite sector risks.

The Dutch lithography giant closed the week with a 4.98% surge to €1,628.00 on Friday, a display of strength that stood in sharp contrast to the broader semiconductor rout. While rivals like Lam Research suffered double-digit percentage losses, ASML benefited from a powerful convergence of market chatter and a blockbuster Asian infrastructure pledge.

Talk of a potential stock split has been gathering momentum. ASML’s American Depositary Receipts now hover around $1,800, a level that invites comparisons to KLA Corporation, which executed a 10-for-1 split in May 2026 at a similar valuation. ASML has not commented on any such plan, but the psychological appeal of a lower nominal price is providing day-to-day support to the shares. The stock has already climbed nearly 65% since the start of the year.

The split speculation, however, is only part of the story. On July 3, reports confirmed that South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix intend to invest more than a trillion dollars over the next decade — equivalent to roughly 1,350 trillion won — in new semiconductor clusters and AI data centers within the country. As the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, ASML is positioned as an indispensable supplier for the dozens of advanced scanners that those fabs will require.

High-NA Progress and a Bulging Order Book

CEO Christophe Fouquet added to the upbeat tone by revealing that the first logic and memory chips made using High-NA EUV systems could ship in the coming months. Although TSMC has hesitated to adopt the technology due to the hefty price tag of over $380 million per machine, Intel and SK Hynix are pushing ahead aggressively. The new tools allow chip structures to shrink by up to 66% compared with current systems.

ASML’s production plans reflect the demand outlook. The company targets deliveries of approximately 60 EUV machines in 2026 — a 25% increase year-on-year — with capacity rising to 80 units by 2027. The order backlog already stands at a hefty €45 billion, providing a buffer against near-term sector volatility. Management recently raised its 2026 revenue guidance to between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from the previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion. Shareholders are also sharing in the prosperity: the dividend for fiscal 2025 was lifted 17% to €7.50 per share.

Growing Risks Beneath the Surface

Despite the bullish narrative, clouds are gathering. Earlier in the week, shares of SK Hynix and Samsung tumbled amid fears of oversupply and a cooling memory cycle. SK Hynix has reportedly slowed the construction of its HBM4 chip facilities, while Apple may be altering its procurement patterns in China. Tech funds are experiencing notable outflows as the AI rally shows signs of fatigue, and strict export controls to China remain a persistent drag on ASML’s business. The Chinese market historically consumed large volumes of the Dutch company’s older-generation tools.

Geopolitical and cyclical pressures could threaten the stock’s elevated valuation. At roughly €632 billion in market capitalization, any abrupt downturn in the AI cycle might trigger a correction. A drop back to the 100-day moving average near €1,322 is viewed by some strategists as a realistic downside scenario.

Technical and Event Catalysts

For now, the technical picture remains constructive. The shares trade 12.86% above their 50-day average of €1,442.48 but still sit 6.86% below the 52-week high of €1,748.00 set on June 30. The 14-day RSI stands at 54.6, a neutral reading that leaves room for further upside without signaling overextension.

The immediate focus now turns to the second-quarter earnings report scheduled for Wednesday, July 15. Investors will scrutinize order intake and listen for any official comments on a potential stock split. Fouquet and his team are also likely to provide updates on High-NA qualification progress and the outlook for demand from South Korea. Those remarks could set the tone for ASML’s trajectory through the second half of the year.