ASML Clears €7.50 Dividend, Appoints New CTO, and Warns Washington Could Derail Guidance

ASML beats Q1 estimates, raises 2026 revenue forecast to €40B, and approves record €7.50 dividend, but US MATCH Act threatens China sales.

ASML shareholders have plenty to celebrate — and one major reason to keep a close eye on Washington. The Dutch lithography giant delivered a first-quarter earnings beat, raised its full-year revenue forecast, and secured a record dividend payout at its annual general meeting. But the specter of fresh US export restrictions hangs over the stock, threatening to knock sales to the lower end of the newly upgraded guidance range.

A Record Payout and a €12 Billion Buyback

The AGM on April 22 approved a final dividend of €2.70 per share, bringing the total 2025 distribution to €7.50 — a 17% increase from the prior year. The payment lands in accounts on May 5, following three interim dividends of €1.60 each that were already disbursed during 2025.

Alongside the dividend, ASML has been aggressively buying back its own stock. The company repurchased roughly 0.9 million shares in the first quarter for €1.1 billion, part of a broader €12 billion buyback program that runs through 2028. Since the program was launched, ASML has returned approximately €45 billion to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. The AGM also authorized the board to buy back up to 10% of outstanding capital through October 2027.

Q1 Beats Consensus, Guidance Lifted

The generosity is backed by strong operational performance. First-quarter net sales hit €8.8 billion, comfortably above the €8.5 billion consensus estimate. Net profit came in at €2.8 billion, roughly €300 million ahead of analyst expectations. The gross margin landed at 53.0%, with the installed base business — service and field upgrades — contributing €2.5 billion, slightly ahead of internal forecasts.

EUV systems accounted for 66% of system sales, up sharply from 48% in the prior quarter. Memory customers drove the shift, representing 51% of system revenue as DRAM manufacturers increasingly adopt EUV lithography to simplify production processes.

CEO Christophe Fouquet cited sustained demand from AI infrastructure investments as the primary driver, noting that chip demand continues to outstrip supply and that customers are accelerating their capacity plans. For the full year 2026, ASML now expects revenue between €36 billion and €40 billion, up from the previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion.

The China Question and the MATCH Act

The geographic revenue mix has shifted markedly. South Korea now accounts for 45% of sales, while China has fallen from 36% to 19%. CFO Roger Dassen expects China to settle at roughly 20% for the full year, but warned that new export restrictions could push revenue to the bottom end of the guidance range.

The specific threat is the US MATCH Act, designed to close loopholes in export controls. If enacted, it would prohibit sales and servicing of DUV immersion systems to companies such as SMIC and YMTC. ASML is nonetheless expanding its Chinese footprint, planning to hire around 300 new employees this year, primarily in customer service, technical support, and installation roles.

New CTO, New Board Member, and a €1.3 Billion AI Bet

The AGM also brought leadership changes. Marco Pieters takes over as chief technology officer for a four-year term, a critical role in maintaining ASML's technological edge in lithography. CFO Roger Dassen was reappointed for another four years, while COO Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury was confirmed for a two-year term. On the supervisory board, Benjamin Loh, former CEO of ASM International, joins as Alexander Everke steps down.

Perhaps the most intriguing strategic move is ASML's €1.3 billion investment in Mistral AI as lead investor in the French company's Series C round, giving the chip-tool maker an approximately 11% stake. The partnership is already producing results: a wafer-stage failure diagnosis that previously took more than ten hours can now be completed in eight minutes using a jointly developed AI model.

Q2 Outlook and Stock Performance

For the current quarter, ASML expects revenue between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion with a gross margin of 51% to 52% — a noticeable step down from the 53% achieved in Q1. The stock trades at roughly €1,212, up about 23% year-to-date but still about 6% below its 52-week high of €1,295. The recent dip of roughly 2% is partly explained by the dividend adjustment. On a 12-month basis, the shares have more than doubled.