As UniCredit Tightens Its Grip, Commerzbank Lifts Dividend and Courts Big Tech

UniCredit now controls 47.59% of Commerzbank, Jefferies crosses 10%, but Berlin refuses to sell its 12% stake. Stock down 6% from peak, yet up 29% yearly.

The chess match for control of Commerzbank has grown more crowded. UniCredit now holds or has access to 47.59% of the German lender’s shares, combining a direct stake of 44.37% with derivatives and call options. The Italian giant’s position was cemented after the extended acceptance period closed on 3 July 2026, during which it collected 17.60% of shares tendered — though less than 2% of that haul came from independent institutional or retail investors, a detail that reinforces Berlin’s bargaining hand.

Meanwhile, Jefferies Financial Group has pushed its own holding past the 10% mark. The US firm’s stake now stands at 10.02%, crossing the threshold on 15 July, with only 2.52% in directly held shares and the rest via financial instruments. The back-to-back notifications signal that institutional investors are jockeying for position as the takeover drama intensifies.

Berlin remains the wild card. The federal government, which still owns roughly 12% of Commerzbank, has repeated its refusal to sell that residual stake. Yet behind the scenes, it is reportedly drawing up a list of demands for any future negotiation with UniCredit. According to Bloomberg and Reuters, the conditions would aim to safeguard Mittelstand financing and protect Frankfurt as a banking hub. The government’s stance, combined with the small take-up from free-float shareholders, suggests UniCredit’s path to full control is far from straightforward.

The stock itself has given back some of this year’s gains. After touching a 52-week high of €39.18 on 14 July, the shares closed on Monday at €36.70 — a 6.33% pullback from that peak and a 5.29% drop on the week. The retreat does little to dent the twelve-month picture: the stock has still added 29.00% over the period, leaving it with a market capitalisation of roughly €40.41 billion. The relative strength index of 43.2 signals neutral territory, while a 30-day annualised volatility of 23.78% underscores the jitters surrounding the takeover saga.

Operationally, Commerzbank is delivering numbers that would normally command attention. At the annual general meeting on 20 May, shareholders approved a dividend of €1.10 per share for the 2025 financial year — nearly double the prior year’s €0.65. The payout rests on a net profit of €2.63 billion, a modest dip from the €2.68 billion of 2024. Strip out restructuring charges tied to the ongoing transformation, however, and earnings hit a record €3.0 billion. CEO Bettina Orlopp used the AGM to reaffirm the “Momentum 2030” independence strategy, targeting a return on tangible equity above 10% by 2027.

The bank has also been returning capital through buybacks. A €540 million share repurchase programme launched in February was completed on 26 March, with all acquired shares cancelled. And while the takeover debate has soaked up most of the oxygen, Commerzbank has quietly deepened its digital push. In early July it extended partnerships with Google and Microsoft, rolling out the Google Cloud Gemini Enterprise app and Microsoft 365 Copilot across its operations — a move that reinforces the cost-efficiency drive but has drawn little attention given the surrounding M&A drama.

All eyes now turn to 6 August, when Commerzbank publishes its second-quarter and first-half results. The report arrives as the stand-off between Berlin and UniCredit edges toward a formal negotiating phase, and the Q2 numbers will test whether the bank’s operational momentum can outweigh the uncertainty created by its shifting shareholder register.