Arafura Nears Critical Juncture with Upcoming Project Decision

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Investors in Arafura Rare Earths are focused on an imminent milestone that will define the company's future. The anticipated Final Investment Decision (FID) for its flagship Nolans Project, expected in the coming weeks, represents the pivotal transition from developer to producer.

The company has assembled one of the most substantial funding packages within Australia's critical minerals sector. A comprehensive financial framework, largely covering the estimated USD 1.226 billion development cost for Nolans, was solidified in late 2025. Key components include:

• A strategic equity investment of AUD 125 million from Hancock Prospecting, granting a 15.7% stake.
• An institutional placement raising AUD 475 million.
• A Share Purchase Plan (SPP) for retail investors, contributing AUD 7.1 million.
• Conditional debt commitments totaling USD 1.05 billion.

Geopolitical Significance Attracts Government Backing

The project's role in establishing a rare earths supply chain independent of China has garnered significant international government interest, highlighting its strategic importance:

• Export Finance Australia: Conditional commitment for up to USD 100 million in equity.
• U.S. Export-Import Bank: Letter of Interest for potential financing of up to USD 300 million.
• Germany's Raw Materials Fund: A planned EUR 100 million investment, currently in the due diligence phase.
• Australia's National Reconstruction Fund: Announced an AUD 200 million equity investment in January 2025.

Furthermore, Nolans is one of only two projects prioritized under the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework unveiled in October 2025.

Share Performance Reflects Anticipation

Arafura's equity has delivered substantial returns over the past year, with trading activity intensifying as the FID approaches.

• The share price range over the last 52 weeks has been AUD 0.125 to AUD 0.62.
• It posted a gain of 134.78% for the 2025 calendar year, significantly outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 index.
• Since the start of 2026, the stock has advanced approximately 2–6%.
• Current market capitalization stands between AUD 1.28 and 1.33 billion.

The AUD 0.28–0.30 zone has emerged as a key psychological level following a breakout from prior consolidation. High trading volumes underscore intense investor focus; on January 20 alone, over 40 million shares changed hands.

From Decision to Production: The Project Plan

A positive FID would trigger the construction of Australia's first fully integrated "ore-to-oxide" rare earths processing facility. The operation is designed to produce 4,440 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide annually, equating to roughly 4% of the global supply of magnet rare earths.

Located 135 kilometers from Alice Springs in the Northern Territory, the project timeline envisions approximately 42 months from FID to first production. The construction phase is expected to create around 600 jobs, with 350 ongoing operational positions. The mine plan outlines a minimum operational life of 38 years.

Favorable Market Dynamics

The decision arrives against a backdrop of robust demand from electric vehicle and wind power industries, coupled with Chinese export restrictions on permanent magnets. Global demand for rare earths is projected to roughly double over the next decade. With China currently estimated to control 90–99% of the global value chain, Western industrial firms face significant supply security concerns.

This environment amplifies the strategic value of new, geopolitically aligned sources of supply. All attention is now on the first quarter of 2026 target for the FID, which will determine whether the Nolans Project moves into implementation, creating a new source for critical magnet rare earths.